Commentary

Coronavirus Fears On TV Front: Possible Ad Schedule Cancellations

Are we waiting for TV networks’ advertising schedule cancellations-- due to the coronavirus concerns? Not now, not yet.

“Most of the option dates have passed, so have not seen anything out of the ordinary right now,” one senior media-agency TV buying executive told TV Watch, concerning cancellations. “It could have a greater impact in the third quarter or fourth quarter.”

Another senior media agency executive said plainly: “Not yet.”

A number of representatives from broadcast TV networks didn’t respond to TV Watch inquiries by press time.

TV marketers have historically had the option to cancel 50% of their second-quarter advertising deals made in the previous year’s upfront advertising market. Third-quarter deals have also been 50% cancellable -- with the first quarter, 25%, while the fourth quarter can't be cancelled.

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Conversely, there could be a possible rise at-home TV viewing, according to Brian Wieser, global president, business intelligence for GroupM. Oher analysts say overall at-home media usage for digital and other platforms could also see a hike in consumption.

Wieser says this could occur as more consumers/workers stay at home -- especially those who test positive for the virus, have symptoms, or are in danger of probable infection.

At the same time, there could be declining out-of-home/outdoor media consumption, due to an expected slowdown of shopping in malls, as well as fewer restaurant visits and other out-of-home consumer activities. In contrast, consumers may continue to do shopping via ecommerce sites.

With the stock-market sharp declines last week — recovering somewhat this week, with a big 5% hike on Monday, up a record nearly 1,300 points in the Dow Jones Industrial index — some media buyers are keeping a watchful on possible quarterly TV advertising cancellations. Manufacturing supply chains have been affected, due a slowdown in Chinese production of products for many U.S. companies.

Some business conferences, mostly based in Asia or Europe, are being cancelled.

Either way in these uncertain times -- as well as heightened interest in the presidential campaign and further coronavirus news -- expect all eyes to be on the big TV screen. With advertising.

1 comment about "Coronavirus Fears On TV Front: Possible Ad Schedule Cancellations".
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  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, March 3, 2020 at 9:51 a.m.

    Wayne, even if at-home TV usage spiked briefly during the "crisis" portion of the epidemic---and that remains to be seen--- this does not automatically mean---as some others have assumed--- in more ad dollars for TV. As for cancelling upfront buys, that's a possibility, though, more likely, those advertisers who spent 65-75% of their national TV dollars in the upfront would have to evaluate whether they should cancel upfront deals  or cut back on impending scatter buys---depending, of course on the latter's CPMs relative to the upfront. If  major cancellations take place---I tend to doubt this, but you never know----we will suddenly have a glut of unsold upfront commercial placements which will depress CPMs when the networks try to unload the time on other buyers. This, in turn, could affect the scatter market, in effect, competing with it.  It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

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About the Author

Wayne Friedman is West Coast Editor of MediaPost. You can reach Wayne at wayne@mediapost.com.