• by Wayne Friedman , October 1, 2020

Disney+ is now projected to double its subscriber growth in four years, according to MoffettNathanson Research -- to reach 159 million subscribers worldwide.

Initial company projections in April 2019 estimated that Disney’s premium video streaming services, launched in November 2019, would get to 75 million subscribers by 2024.

MoffettNathanson said the premium video streaming service would get to an estimated 70 million subscribers.

Disney+ U.S. subscribers are estimated to grow to 52.8 million in 2024 from MoffettNathanson's projection of 35 million by the end of the year. In addition, it expects profitability of $260 million for Disney+ in 2024.

At the same time, other companion D2C Disney platforms -- Hulu and ESPN+ -- are also expected to see more rapid growth, with Hulu rising to 66 million in the U.S. (up from 55 million projection) and ESPN+ reaching 18 million U.S. subscribers (from the 12 million-subscriber level).

In four years, the analyst projects Disney+ will grow to $9.3 billion in annual revenue, with Hulu reaching $16.1 billion and ESPN+ at $2.2 billion.
“Unlike all of their media peers, Disney has now successfully accomplished the difficult pivot of shifting its traditional businesses – and investor attention – towards a broad range of direct-to-consumer endeavors,” writes Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst.

Overall profitability from all Disney digital platforms (including BAMTech) is forecast to come in 2024, estimated at $1.15 billion in earnings before interest taxes and depreciation, resulting from $27.7 billion in revenue -- up from a 2020 estimate of $10.6 billion.