• by Ray Schultz , Columnist, November 24, 2021

Brands are roaring into Black Friday with an apparent tailwind and email teams can rejoice over their part in it. Consumer spending online has grown by 19.8% YoY from Nov. 1 to Nov. 23 to total $72.2 billion, according to shopping data from Adobe. 

“This surging demand also highlights that even with persistent out-of-stock messages, shoppers are getting comfortable with buying something that may not have been at the top of their list,” Adobe states. 

Moreover, Adobe expects spending to hit $207 billion for the full season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31), representing 10% growth YoY. 

Cyber Monday is expected to pull in $11.3 billion, continuing its run as the biggest online shopping day of the year. And with many stores closed, shoppers are expected to spend a record $5.1 billion to $5.9 billion online on Thanksgiving Day.

Toy sales have risen by 256%, followed by video games (up 160%), groceries and books (up 94%).

Still tweaking your Black Friday offers? Note that discounts have declined as inflation has gone up. Still, consumers are expected to spend 9% more during Cyber Week.  

The big early discounts are in these areas:

• Apparel: -14.0% vs -16.1% last year
• Appliances: -8.4% vs -17.2%
• Televisions: (-11.7% vs -16.7% last year
• Furniture and bedding:-2.3% vs -5.7% last year
• Sporting goods: -5.9% vs –13.0% last year
• Computers:-13.3% vs -16.1% last year

Is your triggered notification system in place? Out-of-stock messages have risen by 8% vs. Tuesday of last week. And in November to date, out-of-stock messages are up by 227%, compared to January 2020, and 261% versus November 2019. 

Buy-now, pay-later offers are more popular, with revenue up by 447% and orders by 466% over the 2019 season. But growth has slowed slightly, with revenue down 8.5% YoY and orders reduced by 20% YoY on Nov. 23. 

Curbside pickup is up by 92% over November 2019. On Nov. 23, it was used in 23% of all online orders among retailers that offer the service. The use of expedited shipping through November 23 is up by 1% over pre-pandemic levels, with standard shipping up 42%. 

“We’re on our way to a massive, record-breaking $207 billion holiday shopping season, and Thanksgiving weekend will continue to play a major role, especially online, as many physical stores have decided to close on Thursday,” states Taylor Schreiner, director of Adobe Digital Insights.  

“As consumers are navigating a one-two punch of inflation and supply-chain concerns, they have already spent almost 20% more year-over year. It’s clear that they’re determined to forge ahead by spending earlier to get the items they want at the best possible prices,” Schreiner says.