Netflix is expected to add 31 million subscribers globally between 2021 and 2027 despite losing 4 million in North America, according to the latest projections from Digital TV Research.
However, that 31 million gain — for an estimated 253 million total subs by 2027 — is 29 million fewer than the researcher projected just three months ago, in February.
Overall, the Global SVOD Forecasts report calls for global subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) paid subscribers to increase by 485 million, to reach 1.69 billion, between 2021 and 2027.
Six U.S.-based platforms (Netflix, Disney+, Amazon, Paramount+, HBO Max/HBO and Apple TV+) will generate a combined 988 million of those by 2027 — up from 612 million in 2021.
Disney+ is projected to surpass Netflix in 2025, and add 144 million subscribers by 2027, to reach 274 million. Disney+ Hotstar will roll out to 13 Asian countries by 2027, accounting for an estimated 114 million or 42% of the global Disney+ subscriber total.
Amazon Prime Video is expected to be just 1 billion behind Netflix by 2027, at 252 million. Meanwhile, Paramount+ is expected to surpass HBO Max/HBO, at 91 million to 89 million, respectively.
Netflix will remain the top revenue generator, with $34 billion projected by 2027.
That will be roughly equivalent to the combined projected revenues for Disney+, HBO and Paramount+. One factor: The lower-priced subscriptions in the Asian countries will generate $1.58 billion, or just 11%, of Disney+’s total projected global revenues of $14.7 billion in 2027, per the estimates.
However, the Netflix total is only $4 billion higher than its 2021 total, due to decelerating subscriber growth and anticipated pressure on its average revenue per user (ARPU).
“Netflix needs to boost its content to counter its fresher and cheaper rivals,” asserts Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.