Netflix anticipates it can reach 40 million unique global viewers and 13.3 million in the U.S. for its upcoming ad-supported service by the third quarter of 2023, according to a report Wednesday.
A Netflix spokesperson offered this statement to Television News Daily: "We are still in the early days of deciding how to launch a lower priced, ad supported tier and no decisions have been made. So this is all just speculation at this point."
In preliminary estimates, the report said Netflix expected 4.4 million viewers worldwide at the end of the year, and 1.1 million from the U.S.
The story was first reported in The Wall Street Journal, citing a document shared with advertising and media agency executives. Netflix and its advertising partner Microsoft Corp. met with executives over the last few weeks.
Jason Kanefsky, managing partner, marketplace Intelligence of Havas Media, told Television News Daily the initial estimate seems to make sense if one projects 500,000 U.S. subscribers for the Netflix ad-supported option with two viewers per household.
An earlier report revealed that Netflix told media buyers it will start its new advertising service at a sky-high $65 cost-per-thousand (CPM) viewers -- well above all other premium large streaming platforms that sell advertising time.
Ed Papazian, president of Media Dynamics, said in a comment to TV Watch a couple of weeks ago that it is not just the high price that might give media buyers pause:
“There will be virtually no targeting capabilities in the sense that most marketers interpret them. Also, most of the commercials will run in proximity to shows of Netflix's choosing with buyers having no say about what program content their ads are placed next to. And the real premium content may exclude ads entirely.”
That translates into a mere 15 million household subs globally with , say, 6 of them in the U.S. At 6 million homes Netflix will be about the size of a small cable channel in U.S. coverage and average minute ratings---even if it's AVOD service pulls the same level of ratings among its subs that the full ad-supported service now generates. You are not going to rack up major ad revenues in the U.S. with such a modest level of audience scale---even if you relax your terms of sale considerably from what has been reported and develop a proper ad sales team that can deal with the large media buying shops face to face in an effective manner.
Unless Netflix and others in entertainment, move away from its inserting Woke Social Justice indoctination into almost all of its shows, it will lose rather than gain viewers! I for one and the public in general, are sick and tired of being bombarded with wokeness from every corner!
Netflix show have been mostly crap and the public yerns for non social justce enetrtainment, that only satisifes a small minority of radical agenda people! That is why viewership is down!