• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 6, 2024

New data sheds more light on America’s changing grocery habits. A report from Numerator finds that Walmart has gained 0.6% in the last year, and now commands an impressive 21.4% of the country’s grocery spending, up from 20% two years ago. While Kroger continues in second place, its share has slipped to 8.9%, a 0.2% dip for the year, and down from 9.5% two years ago.

That preference extends to egrocery sales, with new data from Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey reporting that Walmart captured a record 37% of U.S. egrocery sales in the second quarter, up from 35.5% in the year-ago period. And that’s up from 28.2% in the second quarter of 2021. (Results exclude revenue from Walmart’s Sam’s Club division.)

Supermarkets, including national, regional and independent stores, ceded share, falling to 27.3% in the second quarter, compared to 29.8% in the second quarter of last year. And that’s down from 34.3% in the second quarter of 2021.

Brick Meets Click, a Barrington, Illinois-based market research company, says that Walmart’s share gains began in early 2022, following the expiration of the expanded child tax credit at the end of 2021, and as inflation began growing faster than wages.

“Walmart’s reputation for low prices helped to attract households that wanted both the convenience of shopping online and ways to save money in this market,” says David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click, in the release. “The execution of its omnichannel strategy, plus the operational efficiencies aided by incredibly high order demand, has enabled Walmart to consistently deliver the type of experiences that customers expect and to lower its cost to serve online orders at the same time.”

While Target’s market share is much smaller, it continues to gain share for many of the same reasons. It now commands a 7% share of online grocery sales, up from 5.8% in the second quarter of 2021 and 6.5% in the second quarter of 2023.

Numerator’s latest ranking, which includes sales in all channels, not just online, echoes the shift. Of the top 20 retailers, non-traditional grocers, including Costco, Aldi, and Sam’s Club. Trader Joe’s and several dollar stores, notched gains. And among conventional grocery stores, Kroger, Albertson’s, Publix, Ahold Delhaize, and HEB all lost market share.

Overall, Walmart, Kroger and Costco remain the biggest brands, controlling nearly 39% of all grocery sales.