• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, October 16, 2024

Target's holiday ad

The National Retail Federation thinks holiday spending will likely rise between 2.5% and 3.5% over last year, amounting to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spending in November and December. ICSC, formerly the International Council of Shopping Centers, sees similar gains, looking for an increase of between 3% and 3.5% over 2023 retail spending and a 6% jump in food and beverage sales.

Consumers seem upbeat about the economy and their prospects, and the experts are, too. “We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” says NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz in the announcement. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.” 

Another change is a somewhat abbreviated season, with this year’s holiday shopping calendar six days shorter than last year, totaling just 26 days.

Non-store sales, including online and catalog shopping, are expected to rise 8% to 9% to $273.3 billion. That is below last year, when non-store sales climbed 11%.

The NRF also notes that while it expects retailers to recruit between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers, that is somewhat below last year’s 509,000.

ICSC finds that Americans will be more celebratory, with 241 million -- or 92% -- saying they plan to shop this season, an increase of six million from last year, and the highest participation rate since 2019.

“This year has shown a more reserved, yet resilient, consumer as an uncertain economic landscape and sensitivity to higher prices have impacted many households,” notes Tom McGee, ICSC president and chief executive officer, in the report. “At the same time, falling inflation and steady consumer spending have kept retail sales on solid footing throughout the year, and we anticipate another strong holiday season.”

ICSC reports that 70% of its sample say their financial situation is better than a year ago.