• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 3, 2024

Cold winds in much of the U.S. blew heat into holiday shopping, with the National Retail Federation reporting an estimated 197 million shoppers tore into their seasonal shopping lists. That’s just below last year’s record 200.4 million, with the number of people shopping in brick-and-mortar locations up to a record 126 million consumers, compared to 121.4 million during 2023’s Black Friday weekend.

And while the NRF’s data finds that fewer people made online purchases -- 124.3 million, down from 134.2 million last year -- Adobe reports that dollar spending online climbed significantly, with ecommerce sales during Cyber Week totaling $41.1 billion, an 8.2% increase over 2023.

The discrepancy, NRF president and chief executive Matthew Shay said in a conference call discussing the results, stems from ecommerce’s more affluent fan base. “Higher income people are significantly more likely to shop online,” he said, with this year’s research finding 60% of households earning more than $100,000 a year buying online, compared to 40% of those households earning less than $50,000 a year.

Retailers are watching these totals extra carefully this year, worried about how consumers’ financial worries, looming tariffs and a shorter holiday season may cut into fourth-quarter revenues. Due to a later Thanksgiving, there are five fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year.

The NRF noted that consumers say they are roughly halfway through their shopping lists and that spending on gifts is up. This weekend, shoppers spent an average of $235 on gifts, up $8 from last year.

Shay attributed the shift to more in-store shopping to people still craving a post-COVID holiday norm. “People missed the opportunity to be together with family and friends, socializing and creating holiday experiences during the several years of the pandemic. That’s why these numbers have come back so strongly, with people out there shopping. Store foot traffic was very good.”

The NRF, which conducts its research with Prosper Insights & Analytics, anticipates holiday spending will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% this year, totaling $979.5 billion to $989 billion, a new high. 

Other retail experts also spent time prowling in malls to watch shoppers in action and observing constantly clanging cash registers. “Our Black Friday checks in Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Missouri highlighted performance relatively in line with expectations, making us optimistic that retailers will meet or beat fourth-quarter guidance,” writes Krisztina Katai, a research analyst at Deutsche Bank in her report. “Overall, our observations point to better general merchandise trends with customers choosing more TVs, small appliances, and home items compared with our visits last year.”

By category, she expects that the coldest Black Friday weekend in 25 years spurred demand for seasonal goods that have lagged since September, with companies like Sephora, Bath & Body Works, Alo, Vuori, Walmart, and Dick's Sporting Goods all likely to outperform.

She reported slower traffic and sales at J.C. Penney, Kohl's, and Target.

Adobe also proclaims banner results, with its final tally of $13.3 billion on Cyber Monday, above initial projections of $13.2 billion. Consumers spent $15.8 million per minute from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. That makes the holiday the largest shopping day of all time, as consumers pounced on marked-down electronics, saving as much as 30% off listed prices, toys and apparel.

For Cyber Week, Adobe sees a total of $41.1 billion IN online sales, an 8.2% increase over 2023. By day, consumers spent $6.1 billion on Thanksgiving, $10.8 billion on Black Friday, and $10.9 billion on Saturday and Sunday.