• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 5, 2024

Klarna is one respondent still bullish on legacy media.

WARC’s marketing forecast for the year ahead is out, and the annual survey finds that execs are largely optimistic, with two-thirds of marketers expecting business to improve next year. Yet just 34% believe marketing budgets will increase as a result, down from 41% last year, with 44% saying they expect budgets to stay the same. There is also a slight increase in those expecting budgets to decline, at 22%, compared with 20% in last year’s survey.

Among agency respondents, though, expectations are significantly less hopeful than their brand counterparts. Just 28% of those respondents expect budgets to increase compared to nearly 46% of brands.

The research contains more evidence that brands are taking a sharp turn away from previous efforts to address the environment and diversity, inclusion, and social justice in marketing strategies. Just 28% say they expect the environment, and 20% expect DEI, to significantly impact marketing strategies, versus 38% and 30% last year.

Respondents are roughly split on the brand-versus-performance debate, with 35% anticipating bigger spending on brand marketing in 2025 and 38% saying they’ll see growth in performance.

The research follows WARC’s report last week, predicting that global ad spending is on track to top $1 trillion for the first time, growing 7.6% in 2025.

The survey, based on 1,000 executives around the world, finds that most are worried about escalating geopolitical conflicts and the fallout from new trade policies, with 72% saying economic conditions will significantly impact marketing strategy.

The ongoing fragmentation of audiences is also a growing worry, with 44% saying it is one of the biggest causes for concern, up nine percentage points from last year.

WARC also uncovered a sharp increase in experimentation, with 36% saying they’ve adopted test-and-learn approaches in this year’s survey, compared to 18% in 2023. The majority -- 67% –--routinely perform brand health checks, while 45% use econometrics and marketing mixed modeling (MMM).

Online video and social continue to drive future spending, with 34% of respondents saying they are not making buys in TV and cinema. Only 5% say that about online video and social media.

By channel, 65% expect growth in online video, 55% in social and 50% in influencer and creator marketing.

Print is seen as the biggest channel loser, with 42% predicting a decrease in spending, followed by TV and cinema, with 17% anticipating a drop.