• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, April 8, 2025

The National Retail Federation projects people will spend $23.6 billion on Easter this year, up slightly from last year’s $22.4 billion and just shy of the $24 billion record set in 2023. The forecast arrives as economists try to gauge the consumer mood amid stock market swings and escalating anxiety about global trade.

While much of the current conversation has centered on how tariffs will affect businesses -- Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the retail and consumer products sector from “neutral” to “deteriorating” -- it’s less clear how average households are responding.

The NRF sees trouble ahead. “More tariffs equal more anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and consumers,” says David French, executive vice president of government relations, in a statement. “While leaders in Washington may not care about higher prices, hardworking American families do.”

Consumer confidence is already slipping to a 12-year low in March, with fears of recession and inflation intensifying in the wake of new trade policies, the Conference Board reports. And that was before President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs sent markets into a tailspin.

Still, in the short term, the NRF thinks anxiety may be good for business. “As we witnessed throughout the pandemic, holidays such as Easter are especially meaningful for Americans during times of uncertainty,” says Katherine Cullen, NRF’s vice president of industry and consumer insights, in the Easter forecast. “Consumers are prioritizing their Easter celebrations.”

Roughly 79% of survey respondents say they plan to mark the holiday, with average spending expected to hit $189.26 per person. Candy remains the must-have item, purchased by 92% of shoppers, followed by food (89%), gifts (65%), decorations (51%) and clothing (49%).

That adds up to $7.4 billion on food, $3.8 billion on gifts, $3.5 billion on clothing, $3.3 billion on candy, $1.9 billion on flowers and $1.7 billion on decorations -- making Easter one of the most important events on retail’s spring calendar.

Even non-celebrants plan to participate: 54% say they’ll take advantage of Easter promotions, spending an average of $25.43. And this year, the Easter holiday lines up closely with Passover, celebrated from April 12 through 20.

Most celebrants plan to cook a holiday meal (58%), visit friends and family (55%) and many (45%) will attend church. More than half of families with kids are planning Easter egg hunts.

For marketers and retailers, the message is mixed: Spending continues, but the confidence behind it may be cracking.