• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, Yesterday

At an industry event, Dani Benowitz, IPG Mediabrands’ global chief negotiations officer, said half or more of upfront dollars -- $12 billion this year and $14 billion in 2026 -- will come from streaming.

Overall, Mediabrands estimates total yearly national TV advertising -- including quarter-to-quarter scatter deals -- means streaming representing 30% of the money.

Much of this would make sense with what Walt Disney has been disclosing with its upfront deals in previous years.

Last year, Disney said that nearly half -- more than 40% of total upfront dollars committed that year -- came from addressable platform budgets, which includes streaming platforms and digital video.

Estimated total upfront deals from all Disney video platforms was roughly at $9.45 billion. That means an estimated $3.7 billion went to streaming a year ago. Figure that could be up this year by 20% -- which now could amount to $4.4 billion.

NBCU also said Peacock grew 20% for this year’s upfront -- which could mean about $2.5 billion or more -- for its streaming platform. We can see how Mediabrands gets to its $12 billion number.

A year ago, Media Dynamics estimated streaming was at $11.1 billion -- up 35% -- in upfront business, with overall national TV/streaming upfront revenues at $29.5 billion.

Where does this leave linear TV -- now?

Consider legacy media companies aren’t giving much guidance -- or many specific details -- about where linear TV ad revenues have been landing of late.

For example, NBCU did not disclose prime-time upfront revenue trends in its recent announcement. Prime time was always a key indicator about the upfront ad trends in the past.

A year ago, per Media Dynamics, estimated linear TV upfront business dropped 4% from 2023 to $18.4 billion -- with broadcast and cable virtually splitting that revenue take.

And this year -- for broadcast and cable? Surely, those declines are accelerating -- with parity revenues for streaming platforms close at hand.