• by Wayne Friedman , Yesterday

As Warner Bros. Discovery continues the process of spinning off its declining cable TV networks with possible mergers, analysts estimate more declines in the company’s third-quarter advertising.

Its global TV network advertising revenues are estimated to sink 17% to $1.2 billion year-over-year, according to John Hodulik, UBS media analyst, widening a second-quarter 2025 decline of 12%.

A lighter sports calendar will weigh on advertising trends, Hodulik explains in a note. WBD’s TNT is now starting up the 2025-26 TV season without longtime NBA game programming.

During the last NBA season, TNT took in $477 million in national TV advertising for professional basketball games, according to estimates from EDO Ad EnGage.

In addition, Hodulik says, average viewer numbers are currently pacing down a massive 27% year-over-year in the third quarter versus a 21% drop year-over-year in the second quarter.

Distribution revenues are expected to decline at a more moderate level -- 8% in the third quarter to $2.4 billion versus a 7.4% drop in the second quarter.

With regard to its streaming businesses -- HBO Max and discovery+ -- UBS says subscription revenues are projected to inch up 3% to $2.4 billion, with advertising revenue 17% higher to $239 million.

Overall, total U.S. domestic streaming subscribers are expected to be unchanged from the previous quarter at 57.6 million, with global streaming subscribers also flat at 127 million.

As WBD plans to split the company into two businesses -- Warner Bros. (Streaming and Studios) and Discovery Global (Global Networks) -- reports said Paramount Skydance has been looking to make a bid for WBD cable networks before the split occurs.