• by Sarah Mahoney , Yesterday

Retailers hoping for a turkey-fueled spending surge are looking at another reality check: Deloitte’s latest holiday outlook finds more Americans planning to pull back than last year, underscoring the annual gap between what shoppers saythey intend to buy and what they actually ring up at checkout.

On average, people expect to spend $622 over the five-day stretch, a 4% decline and the first drop after four years of growth. Yet participation is edging higher: 82% of those surveyed say they plan to buy something. The catch is how they’ll fund it. Sixty-four percent say they will use financing to make holiday purchases, with 56% expecting to use credit cards, up from 53% in 2024. Buy now-pay later options are still popular, with 29% planning on using them.

High prices remain the dominant pressure point, with 70% citing the cost of living as the reason for cutting back, and 43% pointing to broader financial strain.

Deloitte isn’t alone in forecasting restraint. PwC’s September outlook predicted a 5% drop in average holiday spending, including a steep 23% decline among Gen Z. It also found a 40% decrease in what people expect to spend on gifts over the core Black Friday–Cyber Monday window, and an 11% dip in spend per gift.

The National Retail Federation, however, paints a more benign picture. It expects per-person spending to slip just 1.3% to $890 — barely below last year’s record — and forecasts total holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time. It also projects this weekend will draw a record 186.9 million shoppers, up 3 million.

The NRF says habit, tradition and the hunt for value are strong enough to keep people in the aisles. “Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday and one of the best ways to get deals on gifts,” the organization notes. “Of those planning to take advantage of sales, over half say it’s because the deals are too good to pass up.”

Still, the consumer mood is not exactly lifting. Fresh data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers reports worsening current conditions, even with the government reopened. “Consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes,” writes Joanne Hsu, director. “This month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%, whereas expectations for the future improved modestly.”

Political tension may add fresh uncertainty. Two progressive-backed boycotts — the “Mass Blackout” and “We Ain’t Buying It,” the latter supported by Atlanta minister Jamal Bryant — urge shoppers to skip large chains, particularly Target, and redirect spending to small businesses.

Deloitte adds that generational and income differences deepen the split. Higher-income households (over $200,000) expect to cut back 18%; lower-income households (under $50,000) anticipate reducing spend by 12%. Only those earning between $100,000 and $199,000 say they’ll spend more, up about 5%.

And in a twist, Gen Z shoppers are the most likely to show up in stores, with 72% planning to shop in person on Black Friday, compared to 49% of all shoppers.

For retailers, the takeaway is clear: big crowds, leaner carts — and a holiday weekend where caution and tradition collide.