• by Sarah Mahoney , Staff Writer, 6 hours ago

Consumers may insist they’re tapped out, but their shopping carts keep telling on them. Best Buy’s third-quarter results came in hotter than anyone expected, and the retailer now thinks annual sales might actually rise this year — a plot twist after three straight years of declines. It’s yet another reminder that the American consumer is behaving like a teenager who claims they’re broke, then shows up with a brand-new phone.

That contradiction runs throughout the latest data. Strong demand for computer games, new phones and bigger TVs doesn’t square with a new Gartner report showing that 56% of U.S. adults are changing spending habits because they believe the country is either already in a recession or about to fall into one. Among Gen Z, that rises to 58%, and for millennials, 63%.

In the quarter, Best Buy’s revenue climbed to $9.67 billion, up from $9.45 billion a year ago. Comparable sales increased 2.7%, fueled by computing, gaming and mobile. CEO Corie Berry credited sharper marketing strategies, telling investors the company is gaining in both replacement cycles and the appeal of newer, more innovative devices. Despite intense deal-seeking, customers across income levels are proving “generally resilient,” Berry said.

The retailer’s retail media network is also gaining momentum. Berry described it as “highly profitable,” noting stronger interest from non-endemic advertisers like PayPal, Klarna and Capital One, as well as quick-serve restaurants and sports-entertainment brands.

Best Buy also raised its full-year forecast. It now expects fourth-quarter comparable sales to fall between –1% and +1%. That shift would push full-year comparable sales into positive territory, with projected gains of 0.5% to 1.2%, compared to its earlier outlook of –1% to +1%.

Holiday marketing will follow the audience — straight into sports, streaming and social. Berry said Best Buy is working with more than 200 influencers and creators to spotlight the tech topping their gift lists. The retailer is also going deeper into sports. It continues as the official home-entertainment retailer of the NFL. Seasonal ads will increase in-game presence across NBC, Peacock, CBS, Fox, Netflix, CBS Sports and ESPN’s streaming platforms.

Still, Best Buy’s upbeat tone contrasts with broader sentiment. Numerator reports that consumer confidence has slid to a four-year low, with only 38% of Americans saying they feel comfortable spending on discretionary items.

“This is more than a temporary belt-tightening — it’s a cultural reset,” writes Kate Muhl, vice president and analyst in Gartner’s marketing practice, in the report. “Marketers must recognize that younger consumers want low prices, but they also respond to brands that lighten the mood. Messaging that emphasizes trust and practicality, while offering moments of levity, will resonate far more than luxury or status-driven appeals.”