• by Sarah Mahoney , Yesterday

With just days left before Christmas, new forecasts for Super Saturday point to a late surge in shopping,  even as broader data continues to send mixed signals about what it all means. Are they buying more, or simply paying more? And when they are spending, is it for seasonal gifting, or grocery staples?

According to a new survey from ICSC, formerly the International Council of Shopping Centers, 76% of U.S. adults plan to shop on Super Saturday, up 5 percentage points from last year and 12 points from 2023. Overall, 89% of consumers — roughly 238 million adults — said they plan to shop at some point in the final two weeks before Christmas.

The ICSC data also underscores the enduring pull of physical retail. Nearly nine in 10 shoppers said they expect to shop in stores, led by Gen Z and millennials, suggesting that last-minute urgency and in-person browsing still matter even in a price-sensitive environment. More than half of shoppers also said they plan to use AI tools to compare prices, find deals or generate gift ideas, highlighting how bargain-hunting and tech-assisted shopping have become part of the holiday routine.

Still, the question hanging over the late-season surge is whether higher participation reflects genuine demand, or totals distorted by inflation.

That tension shows up clearly in the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, which found that 41% of Americans plan to spend less on the holidays this year, a six-point increase from 2024. Among those cutting back, nearly half cited the high cost of goods, a sharp jump from last year.

At the same time, the survey revealed a paradox: high prices are also increasingly cited by people who say they plan to spend more. The result is a holiday season in which consumers report heightened price anxiety even as they continue to shop,  often shifting where and how they spend, favoring online retailers, big-box stores and wholesale clubs.

That dynamic suggests that stronger foot traffic and higher sales totals don’t necessarily signal improved confidence. Instead, people seem to be shopping later and more strategically,  leaning heavily on discounts and comparison tools to stretch their budgets.

The survey found 60% of the public is more pessimistic about the economy and its outlook now, which CMBC says is the highest level since December 2023.

That backdrop makes Thursday’s inflation report especially relevant. Consumer prices rose at a 2.7% annual rate in November, below expectations, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, offering tentative evidence that inflation pressures may be easing. While economists cautioned against overinterpreting the delayed data, the cooler reading could help stabilize costs — and sentiment — as retailers head into the final days of the season and beyond.