• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 3 hours ago

Soon the NFL will start up new negotiations -- under its existing option of its five long-term 11-year TV deals with networks and streamers.

Analysts believe that league executives could be looking for as much as a massive 50% increase in revenue.

There is a concern that the result would be to peel off some existing games to be sold to existing or new streaming platforms.

Netflix secured two exclusive Christmas Day games over the last two years. Then Amazon Prime Video signed a multi-year deal to get exclusive playoff games over the last couple of seasons.

It seems that now, YouTube TV (already with the NFL Sunday Ticket) is angling for a new five-game package.

This has some concerned that there may be more to come -- although it would not have much effect on national TV over-the-air broadcast networks that are still secure with their deals.

Down the line, the concern is what it might mean -- especially for local TV advertising inventory for TV affiliates owned by big, independent station groups including Nexstar Media Group, Sinclair, Tegna and Gray Media, among many others.

For the NFL, there is not much concern. The league requires that over-the-air broadcasters get to air local market teams that are playing. For this, the NFL gets an antitrust exemption under the Sports Broadcasting Act.

It is a bit of a different story for the NBA, NHL, and Major League Baseball -- which air many more games. This has increased with the slow demise of regional sports cable networks like Main Street Sports Group (formerly the big Diamond Sports Group’s Bally Sports RSNs),

Now some station groups have made local deals -- especially with the MLB and NBA. For example, Gray, Tegna, Scripps, and Nexstar do more sports as a result.

But there are other things going on: For example, ESPN started a deal with MLB.tv to air "out of market" games starting with the 2026 season.

In addition, the NBA has been in active talks with YouTube TV, Amazon Prime Video, ESPN, and DAZN to create a centralized streaming service for “in-market” games. As many as 22 NBA teams could be involved.

All this is intended to create a new kind of ‘national-local’ hub viewers may be attracted to.

At the same time, those leagues are also sensitive to "antitrust" concerns (especially the NFL) where teams are hedging -- and some are making deals with TV station groups while also forging streaming deals.

Some NBA teams have this, including the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trail Blazers, Dallas Mavericks.

For local over-the-air TV stations, they get to hold or improve their access to premium live sports inventory. But for how long?