• by Sarah Mahoney , 5 hours ago

Consumer confidence may be a 12-year low, according to the Conference Board, but people may not be as worried about finances after all: Adobe forecasts that people will spend $9.9 billion on Oct. 6 and 7, a 9.2% increase from last year’s two-day event.

The Amazon event serves as a major kickoff for the holiday season, especially as competitors offer their own deal bonanza. Walmart’s Deals & More event runs through October 11, and Target’s Circle Deal Days are also October 6 and 7.

Overall, Adobe anticipates that shoppers will spend $95.8 billion online, an increase of 8% from October 2025. While that pales in comparison to Adobe’s $275.1 billion total predicted spending for November and December, it does show how much holiday-inspired shopping is driving October gains.

Amazon is promoting this year’s event with a spot (see above) that makes precisely that point. “Alexa, cancel everything,” says actor Kristen Bell as she hops on a couch. “We’re gifting.”

Adobe expects discounts to peak at 19% below list price during the event, a key driver of pre-season online spending, with electronics, toys, TVs, apparel and appliance discounts ranging from 15% to 19%. Markdowns are expected to be smaller for furniture (14%), computers (12%) and sporting goods (9%)

Sales of popular gift items are likely to increase the most, with Adobe anticipating a 190% increase in toy sales compared to September; video games, up 110%, electronics (up 90%) and personal care products (up 70%).

And while Americans may be losing their appetite for AI in other ways, they seem pumped to use it to shop. Adobe predicts AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) to rise 48% year over year. In a survey of 5,000 shoppers, 49% say they intend to use AI tools for research, 41% for recommendations, and 33% for deal-seeking.

Amazon is seeing the same thing: At its unBoxed 2026 ad conference last week, the company said 65% of shoppers now use AI to research products. That's a challenge for an ad business. Wedbush Securities expects Amazon ad sales hit $84 billion this year, with most of those ads targeting people searching Amazon the old-fashioned way.

Analyst Ygal Arounian writes that the company revealed a series of new products aimed at integrating AI into Amazon Ads Agent, broadening its DSP reach, and better positioning itself to capture top-of-funnel programmatic budgets.

“The product announcements highlight Amazon's growing capability to capture a greater share of ad budgets outside of sponsored listings/retail media,” he says, leveraging data from Amazon, Amazon Prime Video, as well as non-Amazon data.

Wedbush projects Amazon’s ad revenue to reach $113 billion in 2028, with most coming from sponsored listings. And while some investors see that revenue at risk -- especially from Meta -- Arounian sees it differently, as AI continues to flourish as the operating layer for how brands buy ads on Amazon and how shoppers discover and purchase products.

He believes that as these AI tools take hold, it will reduce friction for small businesses, “and position Amazon to capture more full-funnel budgets." However, "transparency, measurement, AI adoption among advertisers, as well as consumer trust in sponsored AI responses remain hurdles to consider.”