With the news that Disney+ gained 68.4 million subscriptions last year to hit nearly 94.9 million — surpassing its four-year goal in just 14 months — while Netflix outperformed expectations by gaining 8.5 million to hit 203.7 million, analysts are trying to scope out if and when the upstart might …
Extrapolating growth curves, one only-recent and one long-term, can be a dangerous game. I guess I'll start to worry when all my friends who stream their content begin to chatter about all the stuff they're watching on Disney+ (rather than me plotting sub counts, some of which are still inflated by free offers or delayed churn). The growth rate always seems slower for the leader because of the ceiling effect.
As it is, everyone in my circle speaks incessantly about what they're watching on Netflix, not Disney+ although your mileage may vary. It's the amount of content, and the buzz about it, not the sub count.
I'll get my crystal ball out, wave my hands eerily over it while gazing deeply into it, and see what analysis I come up with.
Mind you, I think the crystal ball mightn't be working properly as I still haven't won the lottery yet.