• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, November 30, 2009

With more consumer spending shifting to the Web, eMarketer predicts that online holiday sales will increase 5.4% over last year to $30 billion in 2009. That would mark a rebound from the 5.7% decline in 2008, but would still be less than the 30.2 billion total in 2007.

The Web research firm attributed the improved outlook to an increasing number of shoppers buying online and spending a larger share of their holiday budgets online. The ability to compare prices, 24-hour convenience and avoiding crowds at shopping malls and brick-and-mortar stores all weigh in the Internet's favor.

As a barometer of holiday sales, online results for Black Friday -- the key shopping day after Thanksgiving -- appeared to back up eMarketer's upbeat forecast. comScore reported Sunday that U.S. e-commerce sales on Black Friday hit $595 million, up 11% from last year. Traffic to the top five Web retailers -- Amazon, Apple, Walmart, Target and Best Buy -- was up from 2% to 39%, from last year.

Online sales from Nov. 2 through Nov. 28 were up 3% to $10.6 billion.

A separate study from consumer research firm NPD Group on Monday found that 29% of consumers shopped at online-only stores like Amazon on Black Friday, and 23% bought from them. Online and offline sales for traditional stores were not broken out by NPD. But the firm indicated that Black Friday special deals are expanding generally.

"No longer is Black Friday a single day phenomenon, with retailers promoting Black Friday-type sales both before and after the actual day," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at NPD, in a statement. "And consumers have spread out their shopping over the course of the season, both in stores and online."

eMarketer pointed out that major retailers have extended Black Friday promotions to their Web sites to compete directly with Web-only retailers. Companies are also going back to basics online, focusing on things like user-friendliness, expanding product information and providing better customer service. They're also turning to proven marketing tactics such as paid search and e-mail promotions to drive traffic, according to eMarketer.

Early reports also suggest that mobile phones are helping to boost business. PayPal toldThe Wall Street Journal Monday that mobile payments on Black Friday had surged 650% from a small base last year. And searches on product search engine TheFind.com via mobile devices this year jumped to 200,000 from 5,000 on Black Friday in 2008.