• by Wayne Friedman , March 9, 2010

Expect local television and radio revenues to continue their contraction until next year and then inch up for the next three years. All this will occur as local digital revenues will steadily and sharply rise.

Media forecaster BIA/Kelsey says local advertising revenues for television and radio will reach $34.3 billion in 2014, up from $29.9 billion in 2009. That's a 2.8% compound annual growth rate. Digital revenues for local TV and radio are expected to soar nearly 18% over the same period.

"Broadcasters must evolve to participate in more areas of the media ecosystem," stated Rick Ducey, BIA/Kelsey's chief strategy officer and program director, digital strategies for broadcasting. "This means developing the right multiplatform and multiple revenue stream strategies."

In an earlier forecast, BIA/Kelsey says all local media will continue to be reduced through 2011, only to have a recovery starting in 2012.

BIA/Kelsey says spending on traditional media will decline from $115 billion in 2009 to $108.2 billion in 2014 -- an average loss per year of 1.2%. During the same period, spending on online/interactive media is projected to grow from $15.2 billion to $36.7 billion -- a gain of 19.3% annual average growth rate.

BIA/Kelsey predicts that for all local media, the compound growth rate will be around 2.2% -- rising to $144.9 billion in 2014. That forecast was released on Feb. 22.