• by Wayne Friedman , April 30, 2010

TV estimates of big volume gains this coming upfront period have talked up 20% or more increases in broadcast prime time to over $8 billion. But what about scatter, the all-important pricing?

With scatter pricing currently at around 20% to 30% or more over last year's upfront deals, many executives are predicting big gains as well. CBS President/CEO Les Moonves already believes the upfront will yield "double-digit" price increases.

Other TV executives believe more modest average upfront gains could occur.

During MediaPost's recent Outfront event, Jon Nesvig, president of advertising sales for Fox Broadcasting Co., said: "This may be an educated guess at best -- somewhere between 7% and 10% might be the premium people are willing to pay for flexibility. This year's scatter market was well in excess of that. So in protecting your future investment, you probably are going to get more money [in the upfront] at a rate that is less."

In a normal year, media sellers might easily sell sufficient inventory to advertisers, but considering last year's market, which witnessed rare upfront pricing declines in the two to 10% range, some networks are concerned about how much to sell this year.

Linda Yaccarino, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Turner Entertainment advertising sales, marketing and acquisitions, says: "From a network perspective, how much can you take? Do you allow clients to load up off of last year's rollback CPMs? Do the low payers get compromised?"

TV sellers are already considering the future -- next season's scatter and upfront market -- and how much business to write.

"Upfront volume is a moving target," says David Cassaro, president of advertising sales for Comcast Networks.

"My only question in a strong upfront -- will there be a lot of shrinkage when it comes to options? A year-ago comparison is one thing that worries me," he says. "What happens a year from now when you start comparing year-to-year? That's a little bit scary."