Local Spot TV 2012 Forecast: Expected To Hit $20 Bil

Local TV spot revenues are still on pace to climb 10% this year. But the outlook for local print media could be worsening.

BIA/Kelsey says total local TV associated revenues will grow to revenue of $20.3 billion in 2012 from $18.4 billion a year ago. The group says this estimate remains unchanged. Traditional over-the-air revenues will amount to $19.7 billion -- up 9.9% -- with TV online/digital gaining 14.9% to $615 million.

In 2011 local TV  revenues were at $18.4 billion, with $17.9 billion coming from over-the-air revenues and $525 million from digital platforms.

But the group says it revised downward its estimate for local radio -- now looking at growing 2.2% to $14.9 billion. This will work out to $14.4 billion coming from traditional over the air revenues, an increase of 1.9% from 2011. Digital/online local radio revenues will climb 12.1% to $491 million.

In 2011, total radio revenues were $14.6 billion, with $14.1 coming from traditional over-the-air and $438 million from digital/online sources.

BIA/Kelsey also projects more troubling news for the traditional print (newspaper) business -- now expected to drop 10% this year to $18.6 billion. (It was expected to see a 6.6% fall). In 2013, the group says to expect a 6.6% decline to $17.4 billion. But the local online-related newspaper revenues are expected to grow: 5% to $3.2 billion in 2012, and another 5% to $3.4 billion next year.

Total local print related revenue -- traditional and online -- is expected to sink 8.1% in 2012 and 4.9% in 2013.



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