• by Tobi Elkin , Staff Writer @tobielkin, December 11, 2015

John Montgomery is COO GroupM Connect, N.A., one of the biggest media buying and planning agencies in the world. RTBlog asked him for his thoughts about trends for 2016 and beyond. In his  thoughtful way, he offered particularly insightful gems:

1. What are the most important developments that you see happening for 2016 in your corner of the programmatic/ad tech universe?

Programmatic will start to seriously scale in 2016. A number of clients dipped their toes (OK, perhaps their feet) in the programmatic sea in 2015 -- and in the main, found the water to their liking. When I present to advertisers now, there is a sense that they are ready to dive in, particularly amongst packaged goods marketers (where there is still abundant scope for digital).

Video will grow in programmatic. That’s where the money is for publishers. 

Mobile: It’s forecast widely that by 2019/2020, advertising on mobile devices will surpass that on desktops, and that includes video. This has big implications, as the creative industry isn't ready for this change.

I don't think that the strategists are conceiving campaigns with mobile-first in mind -- for example, short-form video, vertical viewing formats, low bandwidth, sound off, etc. Many are still using cut-down TV. Mobile is still treated like a vertical in many agencies. There are mobile specialists, and many regard it as a medium. But soon, mobile will deliver more ads than desktop. We should treat mobile as a delivery platform.

2. How will the debate over viewability evolve? What comes after "viewability"?

I think that in time, viewable impressions will become the norm, but there is still a lot of work to do. We still have to work out how to pay and reconcile against viewable impressions, particularly video, and mobile standards have yet to be set. Fraud and ad-blocking will keep us busy long after viewability fades and who knows what will emerge from the world of proliferated data!

3.  Ad blocking: What will the industry's solution for it be? What solutions do you see as most viable?

Publishers will go through a few stages:

First, outrage. Who the hell do these ad-blocking companies think they are? Let's take legal action! I think publishers have realized that this will fail (some have already tried in Europe and failed). I think that we are almost over this stage now.

Second, they’ll use technology to deny service to users that employ ad-blockers. Don't the users realize that advertising funds content? We won’t let them block ads on our properties! Let's block the ad-blockers and make users watch our ads, or be denied access to the content!

And third, when this doesn't work, publishers will be forced to address the cause, not the symptom. Ads, particularly on mobile devices, are intrusive, increase load times, are stacked to maximize revenue for publishers -- and simply get in the way of consumers seeing the content. If we address the consumer experience, only then can we appeal to users to allow ads back into their lives. 

Ad blocking will facilitate the beginning of a change in the way brands communicate with consumers. If consumers are to accept the advertising value exchange, ads will become more native-like in their formats, and entertain, add value and be less of a hard sell.

I believe that the days of marketers pushing sales communication in front of consumers before they can get to their content are numbered. We are already seeing a huge increase in marketers creating content (and even channels) that inform, entertain and bring value to consumers. In exchange, consumers share and amplify the message, rewarding marketers for the best content.

And by the way, ad blockers that take money from publishers to allow them to let their ads through are extorting money from them, in the same way the Mob forced shop owners to pay protection money in the early 20th century.

4. What needs to happen in the realm of x-screen and x-device attribution, targeting and measurement next year -- and what "will" actually happen in 2016?

Cross-device identification is still a challenge. Many claim to be able to do this in a variety of different ways -- and I think we are making headway, so perhaps 2016 will be the year when attribution matures. Attribution models that are used by publishers vary widely, and more often than not favor their type of audience. Our agency is working hard on creating models that suit the client's type of communication, so it's a much more agnostic model.

5. Where are we going to be in 2016 with real-time creative? How does data help push this along? What needs to happen within agencies and marketers to enable this?

We need dynamic creative optimization to make mobile work, so we will see this adoption grow along with a growth in mobile. We cannot sustain virtually personal media targeting with generic messaging.

6. Where do you stand on header bidding?

Call me cynical, but header bidding is a way of publishers making more money from their inventory. That’s not a bad thing, except that’s what SSPs were meant to do all along. Also, header bidding slows down page load times, which causes consumers to adopt ad blocking sooner. I think it’s part of a search for more efficiency in programmatic and the evolution toward a better product for publishers -- but hopefully it will evolve into something better for marketers and consumers, too.

7. In-house trading desks: What do they look like in 2016? Will your clients decide to eschew agency trading desks in favor of creating their own?

There will always be clients who want to move programmatic in-house for a variety of reasons. There have always been clients who have felt they could do advertising or media -- and now, programmatic -- better or cheaper themselves.

But programmatic is complicated, especially if it is to be done well. The path is littered with potentially expensive pitfalls, and this will take some time for clients to understand.

We are finding success with offering clients a variety of programmatic solutions -- including running bespoke programmatic buying units within client teams so they have, effectively, an in-house solution with all the benefits of GroupM's scale, best practices and access to technology.