Strong TV Scatter Market Continues In Early 2016

The strong TV scatter market advertising of the fourth quarter of 2015 continues into the current first-quarter 2016 period, after years of weak TV advertising buying.

As a result, MoffettNathanson Research expects total national TV advertising activity for the fourth quarter of 2015 to rise 4.3% to $10.8 billion for major broadcast and cable network groups.

Big gains are expected for NBCUniversal, CBS, Disney cable networks and AMC Networks.

CBS is expected to rise 5.6% for the fourth quarter to $1.29 billion in domestic national TV advertising revenues with NBC climbing 5.0% -- including its TV stations -- to $1.74 billion. Both media companies have strong NFL programming packages.

Fox, which has a big NFL franchise with the NFC Conference games on Sunday afternoon, will also see 3% growth to $976 million. Analysts cite big advertising gains from “Empire,” which started its second season in the fall. Its initial year began in January 2015.



AMC Networks will see the best network group results -- as a percentage -- up 15% to $274 million, much of this coming from “The Walking Dead” and its spin off “Fear The Walking Dead.” Disney cable networks, specifically ESPN, will climb 14.3% to $1.4 billion. It expects positive results from the sports network’s College Football Playoffs, although the games produce lower than expected TV viewership.

There are other positive forecasts for cable networks: Scripps Networks Interactive, 6.5% higher to $472 million; Time Warner, gaining 6.0% to $1.0 billion; Discovery Communications, up 4% to $410 million; Fox cable networks, improving 3.5% to $514 million; and NBCUniversal, adding 1% to $866 million.

MoffettNathanson expects continued struggles with Viacom networks -- down 5.5% to $1.01 billion.

Although TV ratings -- broadcast and cable -- continue to generally suffer, media analyst Michael Nathanson writes: “We expect media companies to benefit from a continuation in national advertising strength, due to a robust scatter market that is offsetting some pockets of continued weak rating trends.”

1 comment about "Strong TV Scatter Market Continues In Early 2016".
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  1. Nicholas Schiavone from Nicholas P. Schiavone, LLC, January 28, 2016 at 3:02 a.m.

    Well done, Wayne.

    All is well in the TV Advertising Business.  That's good news!  Nothing wrong with that.

    The only discordant note was the unnecessary obligatory jab about "TV ratings suffer(ing)."  
    Have they ever not suffered, the poor dears?

    I do not understand why smart analysts fail to consider the real possibility
    that Nielsen is not measuring the totality of the TV/Video audience
    because it can't (or won't or both) and to add insult to injury ...
    Nielsen - on last check - was making an "educated guess" at
    [instead of counting or tabulating] about 40% of its national viewing estimates.  
    Well, I guess ratings really are "suffering" at the hands of the all new "Mothers of Invention."

    You know how this song ends, Wayne.  Here comes Frank Zappa.  

    Let's just celebrate the good news and leave the audience measurement nonsense to the MRC.  
    It past time to identify the "modeling scheme" for what it really is (A "scam" perhaps? Just asking.)
    and to "coerce" correction by removing accreditation when it's not deserved ... immediately.

    Onwards & Upwards!


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