Commentary

Third-Party Candidate Ads Score Highest Among Independents and Leaners

All four presidential candidates with any sort of noticeable support in the polls released video ads in August, a total of 22 according the video advertising effectiveness firm Ace Metrix.

The Hillary Clinton camp put out 13 new ads, the most in one month in support of the Democratic candidate. Only four of them were funded by the pro-Clinton Our Principles PAC.

The pro-Trump camp released five new ads, one sponsored by a supporting PAC. Jill Stein’s campaign and Gary Johnson’s Purple PAC released two and one, respectively.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s minute long ad “Terrible” did best among Independent voters and those that lean one way or the other. The spot takes shots at both Clinton and Trump from the outset: “I would feel terrible if Donald Trump gets elected and terrible if Hillary Clinton gets elected.”

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The ad covers a surprisingly vast number of issues from energy policy to education and the economy, presenting Stein as a revolutionary candidate. There is a clear attempt to court those Sanders supporters still dismayed with Hillary Clinton and viscerally opposed to Donald Trump.  

It’s no surprise the ad had the lowest disagreement score among Independents and leaners in the month of August.

Second-strongest ad among the Independent/leaner voter contingent was the pro-Johnson Purple PAC ad “The Honorable Choice.” The ad calls for stronger civil-liberty protections and basically equates the collection of taxes with an infringement on freedom: “The government takes away my money, they’re taking away my freedom.”

Together, the Libertarian and Green Parties are capturing over 12% of the vote in RealClearPolitics’ most recent four-way polling averages. While the odds of either coming away with the presidency are far below 1%, they will have a noticeable impact on the eventual vote in November.

The news is probably better for Clinton than Trump. Gary Johnson, who is polling at a strong 9% in the RCP average, will inevitably peel off more voters from the Republican candidate with a message of fiscal austerity and little overlap with the liberal agenda.

Accordingly, Trump needs to up his spending in the two remaining months. Overall, the Clinton campaign has outspent Trump six-to-one during the general election. When outside spending is factored in, that ratio doesn’t get any friendlier.

Over the past week, according to NBC, Trump has upped his spending in swing states, outspending Clinton in Colorado and in Virginia (where Clinton had no presence over the airwaves). In the past seven days, Clinton has spent $9,760,943 over the airwaves in swing states, with Trump closing in with $6,948,228, per NBC.

The national story is very different, where the Clinton camp outspent Trump 10-to-1 in the week before Labor Day.

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