• by Sean Hargrave , Staff Writer, November 1, 2019

Now the unwritten rule of not mentioning the C word until after Halloween is over -- it's time to prepare for a raft of Christmas ads and predictions over which will win our hearts and which will grate on us so badly we switch over before November is even out.

I've been taking a sneak peek at some statistics Unruly has put together before they're more widely released -- and it seems that, as one might imagine, Christmas ads are all about emotion.

In fact, Christmas ads are twice as likely to make you cry as any other spot throughout the year -- but they're also 86% more likely to make you smile. Ultimately, they're twice as likely as other ads throughout the year to leave the audience coming away with a feeling of warmth. 

Of the nine emotions Unruly measures ads for -- happiness, amazement, exhilaration, warmth, hilarity, pride, sadness, nostalgia and inspiration -- only exhilaration is lower at Christmas. All the others are heightened. 

The good news is that advertisers are 7% more likely to share a good Christmas ad that will give a 13% lift to brand metrics.

Which, of course, brings us onto John Lewis. Which other brand has come to be the face of Christmas advertising more than the co-operatively owned retailer who brought us Elton John as a child, a toy penguin and a hare who couldn't wait to wake up his pal, the bear, for a yuletide celebration?

Further research from Unruly shows that if, as it suggests, Christmas is all about emotion, then the aforementioned "The Bear And The Hare" spot is the most successful Xmas ad from the retailer. Strangely enough, spending millions on a fancy production with Elton John failed to deliver. In fact, it's seventh out of the eight ads rated. Research at the time showed that he did not connect well with the retailer's audience and the only part of the ad they like was when he was portrayed in his early years by a child actor.

Another interesting point that the only ad to engage less well emotionally with an audience was the "Moz The Monster" spot that ran the year before. As the table below shows, all the retailer's ads beat the UK average but it is hard to avoid the conclusion that John Lewis has been losing its touch when it comes to making us cry and then feel all warm inside. 

Here's Unruly's table of John Lewis ads that shows the past two years have seen a big dip in emotional engagement. 

Position	Campaign	Year	Emotional engagement
1.	“The Bear And The Hare”	2013	48%
2.	“Buster The Boxer”	2016	43%
3.	“Monty The Penguin”	2014	42%
4.	“The Long Wait”	2011	41%
5=	“The Journey”	2012	40%
5=	“Man on The Moon”	2015	40%
7.	“Boy And The Piano”	2018	34%
8.	“Moz The Monster”	2017	32%
	UK Norm		29%

Rumours abound as to when John Lewis will drop this year's spot with the middle of November being a good prediction, to coincide with the launch of "I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here". There will be others likely to be launched next week but the big moment will be when John Lewis airs its masterpiece for 2019. For a retailer that has posted poor figures all year, it will need to be thirty seconds that get us emotionally engaged if it wants to turn round its fortunes and buck the trend of the last two Christmas campaigns.