Google Oscar Predictions Based On Search, YouTube Views

On Sunday millions will watch the 92nd Academy Awards, and there is plenty of buzz in Hollywood around the possible winners.

Fans of YouTube -- which has become a tool to gauge success and failure of movies -- have their own opinions. And Google Trends Data based on searches shows something a little different. 

On YouTube, trailers assist moviegoers to determine whether a film is worth watching. In fact, 78% of YouTube users agree that watching a trailer helps them decide what movies to view, according to Google, citing Ipsos research.

This year Google said it noticed a film’s box office success correlates to the number of views the trailer has on YouTube. For example, the comic book character Joker from Warner Bros. has about 77,987,748 views on YouTube. At the box office, "Joker" brought in more than $1 billion on a $55 million budget. In fact, MarketWatch cites "Joker" -- which received 11 Academy Award nominations -- as the first billion-dollar R-rated movie.



Sony Pictures Entertainment’s "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" -- which comes in at No. 2 on YouTube’s list for the most-watched at 30,284,806 views -- has earned more than $373,951,066 at the box office. The Quentin Tarantino film might hand Brad Pitt an Oscar, but analysts are not convinced the movie will take Best Picture.

Universal Studio’s "1917" is a story of two young British soldiers stationed in northern France who must deliver a warning about an ambush. The movie has 22,279,484 views on YouTube. Worldwide, the movie generated about $255,142,159 at a cost of about $90 million to make, not including marketing expenses, reports The New York Times.

It seems YouTube and Google Trend can’t agree on a clear winner. If Google search trends are any indication, Sam Mendes’ "1917" could take best picture. NBC Boston cites a map that Google compiled showing a county-by-county breakdown of the top-searched movies nominated for a Best Picture award.

The trends map cited states including California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, New Hampshire and Delaware. "1917" dominated in the majority of counties. "Ford vs. Ferrari" took the top search in the Midwest.

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