Lotame analyzed the 2022 revenue impact from Apple's privacy changes, and estimates that the Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA), a random device identifier assigned by the company to a user's device, to have a total impact on companies of about $16 billion -- up 9% from previous estimates.
One consideration in predicting the impact of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) on large players is how many users block the transfer of their data when they download apps.
A weather app may be much more likely to get permission for tracking than a game or a photo app. A recent analysis from eMarketer suggests 63% will block tracking. While estimates vary widely, Lotame settled on a 65% opt-out rate as an estimate.
Lotame estimates a 65% opt-out rate is for the four companies analyzed — Facebook, Twitter, Snap and YouTube.
Not surprisingly, Facebook is estimated to have the highest loss in revenue —about $12.8 billion. YouTube follows with a estimated impact of $2.1 billion, while SNAP is predicted to lose $546 million, and Twitter is estimated to lose $323 million.
Apple in April 2021 announced the privacy changes to ad targeting, and in the fall of 2021, Lotame analyzed the possible financial impact.
At the time, Lotame’s estimate totaled $9.85 billion, impacting Facebook, Twitter, Snap and YouTube the most, with more than 80% of that impact inured by Facebook.
Lotame data believes that Snap, and Twitter have a tighter focus on monetizing massive user bases and are seeing notable growth. Elon Musk today attempted a takeover of Twitter, offering to pay $54.20 per share in cash to take the company private. It could have an impact on the outcome of the amount of revenue Twitter will lose.
Snap and Twitter have largely shrugged off these changes with complaints, but they say they are adapting with new measurement tools and methodologies, and by leveraging Apple’s SKAN network, according to Lotame.
Facebook, however, seems to have realized from this experience that it is too reliant on the ecosystems of mobile devices while lacking adequate control.
Despite the estimated loss in revenue, Facebook continues to be the most used platform by marketers worldwide. However, there has been a shift in engagement. While mid-mornings used to dominate more strongly in years past, it now appears early morning hours are best.
For those still committed to posting on Facebook, Sprout Social suggests the best times are Mondays through Fridays at 3 a.m., Tuesdays at 10 a.m. and noon. The best days are Tuesday through Friday, while the worst day is Saturday.