Local TV Forecast To Sink 15% To $18.5B In 2023, Core TV Ads Up 3%

With lower advertising expected from political marketers in 2023, all local TV-related advertising -- including linear, over-the-top and digital --- is projected to decline 15% to $18.5 billion, according to BIA Advisory Services.

Without political advertising comparisons -- $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion is estimated to have been spent by political marketers on local TV in 2022 -- BIA says non-political advertising for all linear, OTT, and digital is expected to grow 3% to $18.2 billion.

Local radio, without political, is estimated to remain the same in 2023 as in 2022 -- at $13.5 billion.

Looking at all U.S. local advertising, BIA estimates the market will be essentially flat -- down 0.5% to $165.7 billion in 2023, from an estimated $166.5 billion in 2022. Taking political ads out yields an improved overall picture of 4.8%.

Next years’ forecast continues to show the growing strength of local digital media -- now at a 49% share of  overall advertising spend --  $81 billion. Traditional media ad revenue is 51% share -- $84 billion.



The top three paid local media channels are direct mail, estimated to hit $37.2 billion, mobile, estimated to reach $33.5 billion, and
PC/Laptop, estimated to amount to $29.0 billion.

Local TV ad categories that are expected to see growth include education marketers, up 9.7%; retail, adding 8.7%, and restaurants, growing 7.5%.

BIA's results come from a forecast of 16 media and 96 sub-vertical media categories.

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