As the start of the national TV upfront ad market draws near, total advertising -- for live, linear TV -- is estimated to drop 8% to $61.31 billion this year while total connected TV will rise 21% to $25.09 billion, according to eMarketer.
YouTube, Hulu, and Netflix are among those that will see big gains, according to this analysis -- with YouTube seeing the strongest rise.
In terms of the upfront itself -- where big brand advertisers typically commit 75% of their September- to-August TV season media before the season begins -- eMarketer says YouTube will get “as much money as any TV network.”
eMarketer did not provide specific details.
Typically, the major broadcast TV networks pull in between $1.5 billion and $3.0 billion per year during upfront deal-making.
When including all TV networks -- broadcast and cable networks -- those totals can typically be double. Walt Disney, for example, took in $9 billion in upfront commitments a year ago, while NBCUniversal tallied $7 billion.
Looking out four years from now, eMarketer says the total video advertising marketplace -- including linear TV networks and connected TV -- is projected to grow 13% to $97.73 billion -- with CTV rising to $40.90 billion and TV sinking to $56.83 billion.
These projections include TV data coming from all broadcast TV -- network, syndication, and local spot) -- and cable TV. Connected TV includes digital ads on CTV-devices, including includes display ads and in-stream ads on platforms like Hulu, Roku, and YouTube. But this excludes network sold inventory from traditional linear TV addressable TV deal-making.