Is there a savior for Warner Bros. Discovery -- as Skydance Media is presumably doing for Paramount Global? Analysts say the numbers would make it very difficult.
Bernstein Research says the company is continuing to see declining equity, and a massive $38 billion in debt.
The seeming potential loss of the NBA (now in litigation with WBD) doesn’t help.
Laurent Yoon of Bernstein wonders about paying almost double the amount of the previous contract “for the same base of viewers today and fewer games” -- adding that taking on the rights would be "more irrational for WBD in the long-run.”
Still, what remains? In anticipation of the NBA loss, it added other sports programming including the French Open for tennis and college football games.
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But all this content is definitely not up to snuff.
The bottom line for WBD is to expect that pay TV linear distributors will be paying much lower carriage fees for WBD’s TNT. And from an advertising sales perspective, expect major advertiser brands to be committing less revenues as well.
Somewhat unnerving is that its direct-to-consumer (D2C) business, headed up by streaming Max, slipped back in the most recent period into a deeper cash-flow net loss of $107 million, versus analysts consensus expectations of $67 million.
Overall results in the recent financial period were even more concerning, as all three specific financial metrics missed on expectations: with revenues (of 4%); earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (13%;) and free cash flow (19%).
Like its competitor, Paramount Global -- which has reduced staff 15% and stopped its Paramount TV studio -- Warner Bros. Discovery will be looking at more reductions as well, or possibly asset sales.
But a new suitor? Right now there are no buyers out there.
And to make matters worse, it seems that Paramount has yet another possible suitor, Edger Bronfman, Jr. -- who is executive chairman of the sports-specific virtual pay TV provider Fubo -- is prepping a bid.
WBD is still waiting for at least one dance partner to give it a spin.