• by Ray Schultz , Columnist, October 18, 2024

It’s hard to know where to start worrying during this anxiety-provoking fall season.

Voters are concerned about the election. Retailers have another problem: Will sales falter because people are focused on or distracted by politics -- and by the fact that the Thanksgiving-Christmas period is almost one week shorter this year? 

It's time to get out those holiday emails, assuming you haven’t started yet. 

An analysis by Emplifi shows that ad click-through rates held steady at 1.3% in the period from 10 to six days before Black Friday last year, but served to 1.82% in the final five days -- as companies increased their ad spend on Facebook and Instagram by 90%. 

The National Retail Federation forecasts that winter holiday spending is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. 

That translates to total holiday spending of $979.5 billion and $989 billion -- up from $955.6 billion during the same period last year. 

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” says Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the NRF. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”   

It was one of the accepted truths of the mail-order business that direct-mail response suffered during election and summer Olympics years because consumers' minds were focused elsewhere. 

That may not hold true in the digital age, but it’s worth keeping in mind. 

Yet Emplifi also insists this may be a good year. 

“Our insights show that consumers become much more likely to click on ads as we get closer to the Black Friday shopping holiday,” says Susan Ganeshan, CMO, Emplifi. “Based on these findings, brands should rethink their social media spending strategies and consider allocating a larger portion of their ad budget to the final two weeks before Black Friday — especially the last five days when consumers are actively searching for deals.”

In the meantime, Happy Halloween.