• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, October 22, 2024

When it comes to planning Thanksgiving feasts, Aldi and Walmart are in a race to the bottom. While Walmart has long hyped itself as the best destination for cost-conscious cooks, Aldi is looking for the crown this year, offering its lowest-priced Thanksgiving basket in five years: a full meal for 10 people at less than $47, or less than $4.70 per person.

In contrast, Walmart’s theoretical meal costs about $7 per person and feeds eight people.

Both marketing blitzes come as consumers grapple with the lingering impact of food inflation: Wells Fargo reports that while food-at-home inflation has slowed to 2.4% since last October, the cost of feeding a crowd this year will be higher.

“That’s because there are record price spreads between the wholesale price supermarkets pay versus the retail prices consumers pay – and the difference is impacting some of the most popular holiday dishes, including turkey and ham,” the investment company notes in the latest report on food inflation. “Prices for other categories are up too, so consumers will need to be conscious of sales and shopping early.”

Wells Fargo says that so far wholesale turkey prices have dropped 29%. Yet the retail cost is just 16% lower. That’s likely to change somewhat in the weeks ahead. “Every year, retail turkey prices drop sharply as we approach the all-important Thanksgiving Day buying rush. Retailers use turkeys as a key driver of store traffic volume, with 84% of whole fresh turkeys being sold in November.”

Even so, Wells Fargo says it is unlikely that consumers will see the complete benefit of the drop in wholesale turkey prices.

And other Thanksgiving favorites are considerably pricier. Ham is at an all-time high, canned cranberry sauce is up 7%, canned green beans are up 9%, sweet potatoes are up 4% and russet potatoes are up 14%.

Fresh cranberries are one of the season's few bargains, down 20%.

Aldi’s basket, which assumes a 16-pound Butterball turkey, includes gravy, rolls, mac and cheese, stuffing, and the ingredients for cranberry sauce, mashed potatoes, sweet potato casserole, green bean casserole and pumpkin pie. The basket bolsters the retailer’s positioning as a leader in everyday low prices, offering customers prices typically 40% lower than conventional supermarkets.

While Walmart, which also recommends a frozen pecan pie and ingredients for a homemade pumpkin pie, can’t beat Aldi this time, it is offering an “inflation-free” Thanksgiving meal at a lower price than last year. New this year, it also gives shoppers the chance to donate an entire meal to their local Salvation Army unit.