
So where’s the "floor" for legacy TV cord-cutting --
when it comes to traditional pay TV subscribers? Analysts keep reassessing where declining subscribers on pay TV services will end up.
Some analysts say the current level of around 72.6
million subscribers (55.3 million traditional cable, satellite and telco subscribers and 17.3 million “virtual”/broadband subscribers) will bottom out to around 50 million.
A lot
really depends on where live TV sports audiences land. Right now, there is much stickiness when it comes to major sports deals that could slow down cord-cutting a bit.
The NFL is in the middle
of a long 11-year, $111 billion contract with broadcast TV networks: Fox, CBS, NBC, ABC/ESPN. (Amazon Prime Video had an exclusive streaming deal with Prime Video to air “Thursday Night
Football).
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CBS and NBC have league agreements allowing them to simultaneously air NFL games also on their streamers -- Paramount+ and Peacock, respectively.
Here is another sports
reason: The NBA just struck similar 11-year deals ($76 billion) with ABC/ESPN and NBCUniversal (and Amazon Prime Video).
For other live, linear TV networks, there are also college
football/college basketball and Major League Baseball deals to consider.
It’s not just sports for broadcast network owners. To keep the lights on, in a way, other programming areas need
to keep going (for their affiliate stations as well).
Although linear TV revenues and profitability keep declining, they are still ahead -- generally -- of where their streaming financial
businesses are.
In addition to news content, prime time still needs entertainment (and new) content.
For the former, entertainment content airings during prime-time schedules also act
like a promotional platform for media owners respective streaming platforms.
Crucial components in following this trend will come from those long-time pay TV consumers -- mostly older viewers,
whose sticky behavior patterns tend to move slowly when it comes to major entertainment transitions.
What is the size of this group? It may be 50 million, and possibly even 30 million.
Why? There is a clause that
allows all NFL media partners (except Disney) to opt out of their deals in 2029 -- just about four years from now. (The original TV contracts have 2033 expiration dates).
Why would they do
that? Perhaps legacy media-owned streaming platforms will be much stronger businesses at that time -- a moment that could see legacy pay TV subscribers land on a new “floor.”
Basement, anyone?