• by Colin Kirkland , March 5, 2025

If TikTok avoids a ban in the U.S., the ByteDance-owned company's global ad revenue is forecast to reach $32.4 billion in 2025 -- marking a faster growth rate than rival platforms like Facebook and Instagram and taking an 11% share of the global social media market, according to a new report by WARC.

The World Advertising Research Center's most recent Marketer's Toolkit survey estimates TikTok's global ad revenue will rise 24.5% year-over-year.

With $11.8 billion in expected U.S. ad revenue -- a 21% increase -- TikTok's stateside growth would outpace overall U.S. social-media ad investment, which is set to rise $10.6% in 2025.

The estimated results stem from global marketers stating that they are more likely to increase investment with TikTok in 2025 than with any other digital platform, including 81% of agency respondents and 74% of their client counterparts.

TikTok is currently the fifth most-used mobile app across the globe and the second-most popular app for women ages 16-24, according to WARC.

With TikTok users spending 35 hours with the app each month on average, the platform's advertising reach is reported to be about 1.6 billion hours -- more than double the average usage by Instagram users.

As TikTok's largest market, with 136 million active users, the U.S. banning the app could massively disrupt TikTok's earnings.

While the video-sharing platform has become a favorite among advertisers due to its powerful algorithm and ability to drive full-funnel outcomes, a stateside ban would likely force brands to redirect ad spend to competing platforms.

Instagram stands to benefit the most from a ban, according to WARC, with ad spend also going to YouTube and Snapchat -- which have been preparing their apps by investing in TikTok-like features.