• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, March 26, 2025

"Uncertain times." That's how IPG Mediabrands' Magna unit headlined the first quarterly update of its 2025 U.S. ad spending outlook, revising it down six-tenths of a percentage point from what it projected at its year-end forecast in December 2024.

Magna now predicts total U.S. ad spending will rise 4.3% this year, down from the 4.9% it forecasted in December 2024, but up from the 3.9% it projected when it first benchmarked its outlook for this year in September 2024.

The Interpublic forecasters attributed the downgrade to the "deterioration" of business and consumer confidence so far this year, citing a bearish stock market and consumer sentiment due to rising inflation.

"Confidence plays a crucial role in marketing and advertising investment decisions," states Magna Executive Vice President-Global Market Intelligence Vincent Létang, adding: "The current - hopefully temporary - dip in confidence has already dampened the dynamics of the ad market, prompting U.S. to revise our growth forecast for 2025. While total ad spend is still expected to grow in the mid-single digits, digital media ad sales will continue to experience high-single-digit growth. In contrast, most traditional media channels may face stagnating ad revenues this year."

Magna's downgrade follows Madison and Wall publisher -- and former Interpublic forecaster -- Brian Wieser's second consecutive downward revision for U.S. ad spending earlier this month, and moves the Big 3 holding company forecast consensus down to +4.1% from +4.3% in December 2024.