• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 17, 2025

Financial markets were roiled recently when the world went upside down for a rare moment: Both the stock market and the bond market went lower on one day.

For investors, companies, advertisers, all this means uncertainty.

Typically, when equities sink, there can be a “flight to quality” -- that being the stable bond market for domestic and foreign investors alike.

The bond market is a safe asset, representing a strong U.S. government and the U.S. dollar around the world. But maybe that has now changed a bit, according to analysts.

Now, another weird moment in a different marketplace could be occurring -- the TV upfront advertising market for national TV networks and premium streaming platforms.

Currently, the second-quarter scatter market --- a benchmark for the TV upfront market -- is weak, according to media buyers. Traditionally that means a weak overall national TV market for the next season, which traditionally starts in September.

Then customarily, things can shift. The following season’s scatter market -- the near-term quarter-by-quarter buying of TV advertising time -- typically gets stronger for TV sellers throughout the season -- with the cost-per-thousand viewers rising.

But imagine if the unthinkable happens -- that both the upfront AND the scatter marketplace go down a weak path.

Sounds strange indeed. But these are not ordinary times. Shifting tariff-related news from the Trump Administration has left American businesses with big question marks about what comes next.

Many are declining to even offer up regular “guidance” about where revenues, earnings and general business is headed. And that includes future marketing and media efforts.

Panelists discussing upfront issues at the recent MediaPost’ Outfront conference talked up such tariff-affected problems offering words like ‘safety’, “performance” and ‘flexibility.’

The last word speaks to the belief that brands might be dinged for some time by back-and-forth tariff messaging. And then there is the effect of a possible recession also disrupting things.

The U.S. President says, with regard to the continual changes with tariffs that he is merely being “flexible.” So then let’s now define "flexible" for the next 12 months if you dare and what it means to be all things related to the TV advertising upfront.