• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, 10 hours ago

As tariffs once again dominate political headlines, they’re also driving consumer anxiety—even as spending hasn’t yet dropped. Gartner’s latest research shows that Americans are uneasy about the economy and trade policy but still feel reasonably confident about their ability to afford essentials and indulgences. That disconnect presents a unique challenge for marketers. Kate Muhl, vice president and analyst in Gartner’s marketing practice, tells Marketing Daily why CMOs need to prepare now for a potentially volatile fourth quarter—and why simply cutting prices or promoting “Buy American” may not be the answer.

Interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Marketing Daily: Gartner’s new research looks at how consumers are reacting to tariffs. Why did you launch this study now?

Kate Muhl: We’ve been tracking economic anxiety since the pandemic began. Back then, we started with a “pandemic concerns tracker,” and once vaccines rolled out, economic worries quickly overtook health-related fears. Inflation made those concerns more acute, and while inflation has moderated, tariffs could reignite them.

That’s why we ran this study—to help CMOs understand that the playbook for navigating inflation isn’t the same as the one needed for recessionary or trade policy-driven disruption. Consumers are already on edge, and the emotional weight of uncertainty is a powerful force.

Marketing Daily: What stood out most in the data?

Muhl: What surprised me was the gap between broad economic anxiety and individual optimism. Consumers are pessimistic about trade policy and the economy overall, but most say they’re doing OK financially. Two-thirds feel confident about affording necessities, and nearly half feel good about covering discretionary purchases.

It’s part of a pattern we’ve seen since 2020: “My life is fine, but the world is a mess.” That disconnect makes it harder for marketers to predict behavior, because consumers aren’t reacting in ways that always line up with the headlines.

Marketing Daily: So how should CMOs respond to that emotional contradiction?

Muhl: Brands need to be a source of stability. This is not the time to introduce sweeping changes to brand positioning or core promises. Consumers are craving consistency. We’ve been through five years of tumult—from COVID to inflation to geopolitical turmoil—and that’s taken a toll on brand trust.

Our advice is: Stick to your promise. If your brand is about value, highlight that. If your promise is about quality, reliability, heritage—lean into that. CMOs should overdeliver on the things they’ve already told consumers to count on.

Marketing Daily: One stat that jumped out is that four in 10 consumers say they’re delaying major purchases, and you expect that will rise to 60% by the end of the year. What does that suggest?

Muhl: That’s a big shift. In 2024, only three in 10 said that. We see this as a leading indicator of recessionary behavior. People are also paying down debt, increasing savings, and cutting things like streaming subscriptions. They may not expect to lose their job, but they’re bracing for uncertainty.

That kind of psychological pullback matters a lot to marketers, and signals that consumers are shifting into a more conservative financial mindset, regardless of what macroeconomic indicators say.

Marketing Daily: You dug into the idea that people will “buy American” in response to tariffs. But your findings show that doesn’t always mean what it used to.

Muhl: Exactly. Forty-two percent of consumers expect to buy more American-made products next year, but the motivations are mixed. Some are proudly waving the flag. But many others are just resigned: they think imported goods will be harder to find or more expensive.

So “Buy American” isn’t necessarily a patriotic statement, but a practical one. And some are downright annoyed. They’re saying, “I’ll have to buy American because I won’t have a choice.”

Marketing Daily: Amazon recently toyed with a feature showing which part of a product’s price was due to tariffs and dropped the idea as soon as the administration complained. Do you think consumers will start demanding that kind of pricing transparency?

Muhl: Consumers may want that, but that kind of honesty is risky for companies to provide. We’re in a period we’ve called “price paranoia.” Consumers don’t just think prices are high—they think they’re being gouged. Dynamic pricing, shrinkflation, and hidden fees have made shoppers deeply suspicious.

If you suddenly say, “Oh, this part of the price is because of tariffs,” consumers may not believe you. Or they’ll think, “Cry me a river. You’ve been raising prices all along.” Unless you’ve earned their trust, that kind of transparency can backfire.

Marketing Daily: Could these trade disruptions lead to shortages, especially during the holidays?

Muhl: Yes. That’s the bigger emotional risk. This isn’t just about paying more for toys or electronics, but about not being able to get them at all. Empty shelves are a powerful trigger for Americans and brings back memories of the pandemic.

If popular items are unavailable or delayed, that could lead to a very literal blue Christmas. Not politically, but in the Elvis sense—especially for parents and grandparents trying to make the holidays feel special.

Marketing Daily: What’s your top advice for CMOs heading into an uncertain Q4?

Muhl: Make price stability a cornerstone of your message—if you can deliver it. Brands like Keen and Hyundai are already doing that with short-term no-hike pledges, and that kind of specificity builds trust. Don’t promise what you can’t keep. But if you can hold prices, say so—loudly and clearly.