• by Wayne Friedman , July 8, 2025

In-theater/onscreen advertising network National CineMedia is projected to be hit with lower ad revenue due to “softer ad trends” as a result of tariff issues in the near term, according to B. Riley Securities.

Drew Crum, media/entertainment analyst, writes: “Tariffs had an adverse effect on select ad categories (i.e., auto, consumer packaged goods, and government) during April and May.” 

Although there have been some stabilizing trends, early domestic box-office revenue results are lower than a year ago, which “implies movie attendance slippage too.”

The outlook is not expected to improve in the third quarter.  

“This reflects ongoing uncertainties around the global trade environment, what we believe was a downbeat upfront,” says Crum, who estimates a little more than 50% of NCM's ad revenue mix comes from upfront deals.

These projections are a result of lower comparative domestic box-office revenue and lower attendance compared to the summer moviegoing period a year ago.

Second-quarter ad revenue estimates are now at $55 million for NCM (versus a $59.7 million earlier estimate), while the third-quarter forecast is $63 million (versus a $66.3 million earlier estimate).

Crum estimates second- and third-quarter ad revenues will be flat versus the revenue of year-ago periods.