• by Sarah Mahoney , Yesterday

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If women control the bulk of discretionary spending, then TJX is cashing in on their new priorities. Women now account for 59% of discretionary purchases, but new Circana research shows their unit sales are flat — while men’s rose 3% — as they pull back on splurges and focus on affordable refreshes.

That caution is fueling big gains at TJX Cos. The parent of TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods posted results well ahead of expectations, with comparable sales up 4% and net sales climbing 7% to $14.4 billion. Net income advanced 15% to $1.2 billion. “Consumers were drawn to our excellent values and brands,” said CEO Ernie Herrman, in the announcement. “Customer transactions were up at every division as we saw strong demand at each of our U.S. and international businesses.”

Circana notes that women are buying fewer big-ticket items like furniture and apparel but are leaning into categories that allow for quick, lower-cost updates, such as home décor and team sports. They’re also shifting spending away from specialty apparel and department stores and into ecommerce and warehouse clubs.

“Female consumers are critical to retail performance, representing more than half of annual spending,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana, in the report. “Shifts in spending behavior among female consumers reveal signs of broader consumer changes brewing.

Analysts say TJX is well positioned for this shift. “TJX is pushing further into categories like gifting and consumables, which are natural adjacencies to its core apparel and home offerings,” wrote Jaime Katz, an analyst at Morningstar. “Such efforts contributed to higher average baskets and customer transactions.”

Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData, adds that TJX’s strength isn’t just price, but product. “Value can only be delivered if the product is right alongside the price being sharp,” he writes. “This is where TJX excels, thanks to its merchant mindset, which is attuned to customer needs and buying opportunities.”

That’s evident at HomeGoods, where comparable sales rose 5%. “Shoppers are fascinated with light redecorations and room refreshes, which plays squarely into HomeGoods’ hands,” Saunders says. “It also helps that the range is constantly changing, which drives a ‘must pop in to see what’s new’ mentality — something many other furnishings stores fail to deliver.”

TJX lifted its full-year outlook, even as other retailers trim forecasts, suggesting that as long as women shoppers stay cautious, off-price will keep winning.