As big as the NFL is right now, it still
feels it is being short-changed.
Last season, the dominant TV sports programmer averaged 17.5 million Nielsen-measured viewers for a regular-season game
across all broadcast, cable, and streaming networks and platforms.
But league executives say the number should be a lot higher. This comes specifically around
co-viewing, resulting in undercounting of people watching at home.
For example, chief data and analytics officer of the NFL Paul Ballew told Front Office Sports that
Nielsen’s co-viewing data for the Super Bowl LIX -- which averages 2.4 people in a household watching the big game -- “makes no sense.”
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In particular, this thinking comes
with traditional full-day Super Bowl day viewing surrounded by growing efforts around Super Bowl Sunday parties.
Guessing a Super Bowl party of two or three isn’t a real
party.
At the same time, Ballew commends Nielsen's efforts to glean better viewing results around its new, more in-depth and comprehensive “Big Data + Panel”
measurement -- ready to start in time for the new 2025-2025 TV season: “We’re happy with the steps we’ve taken forward for 2025, but there’s more work to be
done.”
Super Bowl parties have been a tradition for some time. But how much is this translated into regular-season and playoff games? Isn’t it possible to consider
watching the games totally alone? TV Watch has been doing this semi-regularly.
On the flip side, consider that Super Bowl viewing has been steadily
rising to new record totals in recent years — increasing 3% to 127.7 million viewers, according to Nielsen and Fox Corp data, for this past February’s game airing on Fox Television
Network and Tubi, its streaming FAST network.
But at the same time, Fox TV network data (looking only at that network's data) was down 8% from CBS Television
Network, which had the game the year before -- to 111.2 million (versus 120.3 million on CBS).
The NFL’s assumption must be that nearly everyone must be watching
the big game -- certainly not less than half of its overall potential reach: 128 million total viewers comes versus 315 million total potential U.S. TV viewers (in 125 million households).
Every TV producer since the dawn of TV would always seem to have this claim: Way more people are watching their content than the experts, networks, and third-party sources
claim.
But consider that we are in a new inflection point: modern TV-streaming viewers and overall many more digital media choices including, yes, younger digital media
consumers.
One indication could be this: Are Gen Xers, millennials, and Gen Zers clamoring for more NFL content? Are they holding more Super Bowl parties than young viewers, say,
two or three decades ago? (Maybe if they are Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce fans.)
Proponents would argue that young consumers watch more streaming/CTV content than linear TV. Not
only that, but that on a like-to-like basis for standard prime-time TV shows -- like “NCIS,” “Chicago Fire,” and, yes, the NFL games -- all that content now streaming skews
younger.
In that regard, the goal may be to account for those viewers -- or other audience groups -- in the weeks going forward.
We’ll get some early readings -- and scores -- soon. (Maybe even some Swift-Kelce wedding plans amid the game-time action).