• by Sarah Mahoney , Yesterday

American shoppers may be spending more—but they’re not feeling secure about it. Circana’s new holiday survey finds most consumers plan to spend about the same as last year, yet are bracing for higher prices, fewer gifts, and early bargain-hunting. At the same time, Adobe forecasts record online sales of $253 billion, underscoring a season that may look healthy on paper but anxious in practice.

Circana says 80% of shoppers expect prices to rise, driven by tariffs and inflation, pushing many to shop earlier and lean harder on promotional events like those from Amazon, Walmart and Target.

Adobe forecasts $9 billion will be spent during the current Prime Day event, representing 6.2% growth YoY. Discounts are expected to peak at 17%.

“The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season, which means the flow of the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable,” says Marshal Cohen, Circana’s chief retail advisor, in the announcement.  “While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day.”

The research measured shopping intentions, which are often quite dissimilar to what consumers actually spend. Their current plans: an average of $796 on holiday shopping this year, 3% higher than last year’s intentions. And 31% say that will be reflected in fewer gifts.

Almost half plan to start shopping before Thanksgiving, and 24% have already started or even finished. That’s an increase of 4% from last year. And the percentage who say they will wait until December is 19%, the lowest it has been in recent years.

Adds Cohen: “Marketers will need to be diligent in their efforts to inspire the consumer, whether it is tapping into pent-up demand for products from key industries, like apparel, toys, and technology, or appealing to the consumer’s core value of the moment — whether price or priority.”

Tariffs aren’t just adding cost pressure — they’ve also distorted inventory. Many retailers stocked up ahead of import hikes, betting on demand that may not materialize. If they guessed wrong, they’ll need deep discounts to clear excess, just as shoppers are trading down.

The nervous-but-still-spending trend may well translate into a strong year for marketers and retailers. Adobe’s forecast predicts that ecommerce spending for the two-month holiday period will cross $250 billion for the first time, hitting $253.4 billion. That represents a gain of 5.3%.

And Adobe predicts that 10 days — compared to just seven days last year -- will see sales greater than $5 billion. Spending on mobile devices continue to dominate, with Adobe forecasting that mobile will drive 56.1% share of online spend. That’s an increase of 8.5% from 2024.

For marketers, that tension may be the season’s defining theme: Plenty of dollars in play, but few sure bets.