• by Josh Lovison , December 2, 2008

War is coming – in more ways than one

1. Consoles become the “smartest” household appliance. With the emergence of day-and-date downloadable content, multiplayer networks, social features, media connectivity, virtual marketplaces — heck, even a virtual world — consoles are going to be plugging into the network.

2. Lots of user-generated crap and a few gems. With the success of Spore and LittleBIGPlanet, the user-generated model of “interlocking sandboxes” will become a defined genre.

3. The year of a third life. Second Life’s age is over, but the era of virtual worlds is just beginning. 2009 will see the emergence of the MySpace to Second Life’s Friendster.

4. World of Warcraft, the most profitable game in history, will finally be toppled — by Activision Blizzard, the makers of World of Warcraft. The company has announced work on another MMORPG, and given their financial success and years of experience with WoW, they stand the only chance of besting their own hit.

5. The casual market’s business models will spread to core gaming: Microtransactions could fuel the game economy and help combat the continuing issue of piracy. Luigi’s free, but Mario will cost you.

6. With the expanding features and capabilities of Flash and in-browser gaming, and the heavy competition in casual gaming, casual game budgets are going to explode. Bejeweled HD 9000? Sounds right.

7. From Nintendo’s numbers, the primary purchasers of the Wii have actually been core gamers. But 2008 failed to deliver compelling core third-party content, and combined with a harsh global economy, that will slow down the Wii’s sales — from “whee!” to “meh.”

8. Core PC gaming has always been hampered by the high cost of keeping up with the bleeding edge. Cloud-rendered games, potentially emerging at the end of 2009, will revitalize the PC gaming market and give consoles some desktop competition.

9. As App Store–like functionality becomes standard on smartphones in 2009, mobile’s capabilities as a gaming platform are going to cut into dedicated handheld gaming profits. Device consolidation: imminent.

10. And the first one in? Nintendo. Maybe it’s the least likely to announce a mobile phone, but stranger things have happened. It’s had communication in mind for a while now, with some of their ideas in the DS. Besides, if Apple and Google did it, why not Nintendo?