Chris Peterson

Articles by Chris All articles by Chris

• OTT: Is It TV Or Digital?  in Television News Daily on 09/27/2017
  

  OTT (over-the-top content) is racing ahead in relevance and frequency, and there's no signs of it slowing down anytime soon, which might be to the advertising industry's chagrin. The industry famous for coining labels that last seems to struggle with how to categorize OTT content and figure out what to do with it. Just identifying where it belongs is a challenge from a budgeting, and department standpoint within both agencies and brands. So here's the question: Is it TV or is it digital?

• How Trump Win Explains Future Of TV Advertising in Television News Daily on 11/10/2016
  

  The second biggest story on Nov. 8 was the incredible failure of polling. Many were surprised by Trump's triumph because the expectations going into election night were so different.

Comments by Chris All comments by Chris

• When It Comes To Attribution, It Feels Like TV Is Selling Last Year's Model by Joe Mandese (Video Insider on 06/11/2019)
  

  Joe, I think the situation is very different with national TV media. Also, the term "modeling" can be construed too many different ways. Measuring "lift" across several local markets is always a mixed bag, even if you have a strong set of match markets. There are so many variables at play. But more importantly, measuring "lift" is not state of the art for "modeling." Multi-stage regression modeling is - the ability to tease out total effects of TV advertising without having to look at baselines. Regression modeling also captures what Doc Searls is striving for - the overall market effect of TV - because regression modeling captures the rising tide of awareness as advertisers increase their investments while managing to an overall business return. It also pegs media investment level to ROI via saturation curves as a reflection of the current media strategy (not what can be done). Regression modeling is the opposite of most ad tech, which is focused on the little transactional things that Doc Searls points out. Regression modeling deals with a time series analysis of impressions and sales in a manner that is more medium to long term. All to say that the words "modeling" and "attribution" scoop up many many things, some good, some bad, some really bad. Finally, the brands that Doc Searls points out - Ford, Geico - have the distinct advantage (similar to Apple, Jack in the Box, and Samsung) that they have a very large addressable audience, very high customer value, and very strong market fit. When you combine those three things, you end up with advertising budgets in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Most advertisers do not have all three. Many successful ones have two, but you aren't going to see them consistently night after night in prime time without all three. If you only have one, then you really don't have a business. 

• Dave Morgan Resigns From ARF Board, Cites Industry's Need For 'Bolder Action' by Joe Mandese (MediaDailyNews on 04/15/2019)
  

  Fantastic. Congratulations to Dave Morgan. There are huge blind spots in this industry that are only getting bigger. 

• GroupM Revealed To Be Videology's Largest Creditor, Owed $35 Million-Plus by Joe Mandese (MediaDailyNews on 05/14/2018)
  

  "Rebate" puts it very mildly. I'd love to see GroupM disclose the financial backup for Videology actually buying media from them, but I'm not holding my breath. This looks really really bad without definitive proof. That last sentence is also a head scratcher - "Our relationship with Videology and its benefits are disclosed to our clients." Since when are "benefits" "disclosed?" Clearly this is crafted by a nervous attorney. It's shameful how some of the large networks destroy trust within the industry for everyone else. 

• Simulmedia Says More Cost-Effective To Avoid Prime Time by Wayne Friedman (Television News Daily on 04/20/2018)
  

  It depends on the tools that you use whether you can tell if prime works or not. If you track people using pixels on a web site prime will never reveal its value. That's a very limited DR approach. And what advertiser is not focused on "business outcomes?" When you perform statistical modeling at the network/daypart/program level, you can uncover prime programming that is very efficient and it typically (but not always) tracks with audience measurement as defined by segments, not typical buying demos. You have to know exactly who you are going after - now and in the future. That's how you scale a business because you are achieving reach and efficiency. Otherwise you get stuck in a long tail of low-reach programming. It's not about awareness vs. DR. It's about correlating media investment to revenue - all advertisers want that. If they don't, I'd like to make sure I don't own any of their stock.  

• How Digital Ad Spending Accelerates E-Commerce Growth, Why That Is Good For 'Traditional' Media by Joe Mandese (Research Intelligencer on 03/02/2018)
  

  Having a bad day John? Enjoy your weekend. 

• How Digital Ad Spending Accelerates E-Commerce Growth, Why That Is Good For 'Traditional' Media by Joe Mandese (Research Intelligencer on 03/02/2018)
  

  Fantastic piece teasing out growth of ecommerce relative to overall ad spend. Love the GDP growth relative to ad spend - pretty much demonstrates the dawn of a new age. Thank you for posting. Couple of thoughts: Today ecommerce remains in the low teens as a precentage of total retail sales, but is growing faster than anything (only trillion dollar industry with double digit growth). So today this is still a bit of a small category, but it will plow through the landscape in an unrelenting fashion. The one thing I would point out here is that the "webendemic" companies, while certainly building a strong foundation using digital media, turn to TV next to drive scale. With that, they bring a digital mindset to TV, which is helping transform how TV gets done. The problem I see with the large global ad networks is that they aren't as in tune with this because of these newer brands generally are not inclined to work with a big network agency. When Martin Sorrell anounced recently that they need to align media with data more, it was a bit of a "duh, thanks for the insight from five years ago."

• 4As Names BSSP's Stern Chairman, Succeeding Horizon Media's Koenigsberg by Steve McClellan (MAD on 09/28/2017)
  

  Congratulations Greg!

• Trust Remains Major Challenge For Advertising Industry, CMO Council Says by Laurie Sullivan (Digital News Daily on 09/26/2017)
  

  "Consumers say their perception of a brand changes when their ads appear on sites they don't trust or next to questionable content," she said.So consumers are visiting sites they don't trust and are reading what they think is questionable content? I suppose this is like asking people if they think getting a paper cut while seeing an ad might change their perception of the brand. 

• Is This A Good Thing? Facebook Eyes Long-Form Content by P.J. Bednarski (VidBlog on 02/01/2017)
  

  Facebook, with its massive audience, can make a new OTT app widely used very fast once they optimze content. Advertisers will flock if they can better reach a younger demo than live linear. Hulu's ad-supported platform is growing like weeds for the same reason. But Hulu has to pay a lot to get a new subscriber and has high churn rates. For Facebook, new users will cost almost nothing. 

• OTT Planning And Buying: The Dream Vs. Current Realities by Karlene Lukovitz (Audience Buying Insider on 11/11/2016)
  

  One interesting thing about OTT is that a large majority of it is viewed on the living room wall. 75% for Hulu and 80% for Sling as two examples where advertising is sold. So it is more like TV than digital in that respect. But the tracking and targeting is a lot more like digital. For TV buyers, it's an introduction to digital tracking. For digital buyers, it's an introduction to the power of a video impression in the living room, which triggers immediate mobile responses.

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