Now Stepping Up To The Dartboard: Yeah, let me have a shot at the forecast bullseye. All due respect to McCann Universal VP Bob Coen’s call of a 2.1 percent increase in overall ad spending, but I would like to introduce some wild cards. First, I think advertising has taken on many powerful new forms that are hard to measure. This should lead the ad business to re-examine how it tallies total ad spend.

Rockin’ All Over The World: Hey, I’m a globalization guy. I read “The Lexus and The Olive Tree.” Bought the CD and the DVD of “Buena Vista Social Club.” Ate a burrito for lunch today. I drive a Volvo. One of my favorite movies is “Cinema Paradiso.” But I’m still not sure that globalization in advertising will be effective. Playing the international game is very cool and in vogue right now. But before planners and buyers play it, I hope they understand that choosing an international link needs to be an important element in the brand being advertised.

Hollywood Shelf-Life: Or maybe that’s an oxymoron. The advertising and marketing departments of big movie studios have mastered the art of opening a movie. They’ve mastered it to the point that they can pick a number for an opening weekend (which seems to always be a record) and go hit it. “MIB II? $90 million? Sure, babe.” What they have not mastered is the concept of shelf life.

Second Half Riffs: When I was in high school we had a football coach who always told us the second half of the game was for winners. After a scattered first half in terms of actual ad spending, I believe the second half of the year will return the ad business to a focus on effectiveness, and a departure from worrying about a total ad recovery. If you're playing to win, here are the issues you need to focus on as the second half gets underway:

OPR’s (other people’s riffs) for the Week: Did Everyone Forget Animal House? In the August issue of Food and Wine magazine, readers were polled about various cuisine-oriented things. Among them was their “Favorite Movie Moment Involving Food.” The spaghetti scene in Lady and The Tramp (45%) was favored above the seduction scene in 9 1/2 Weeks (28%), the pie scene in American Pie (21%) and the brain scene in Hannibal (6%)

A Good Hand To Play: Dow Jones made some exec changes at The Wall Street Journal yesterday, and the paper’s new leaders have nothing less than the burden of an industry on their shoulders. Richard Zannino was named chief operating officer and Karen Elliot House was named senior vice president and publisher of all print editions.

Bouncing Off The Satellites: I am wearing my satellite radio T-shirt. I am rooting for XM and Sirius and whoever else decides to open up radio programming and advertising options by adding more choices to the dial. But I must admit even as I cheer, I have no idea why these futuristic services have such retro marketing.

Off the books: While we are all consumed with accounting and insider trading, a very telling branding report was published by Harris Interactive recently. It shows what we all know and sometimes forget about consumer perception. And that is the inescapable fact that advertising can communicate a great brand, but there’s nothing like product quality to make a brand great. Harris measured consumer quality perceptions of more than 100 brands. You could argue that within the top ten, not one of them has the ad power of a Pepsi, Budweiser or Chevy Truck. You won’t find a soda, car or …

Does That Include That Christmas Tree Project Where My Kid Glue Gunned His Hands Together? While chopping cabbage for her weekly segment on the CBS Early Show, Martha Stewart addressed her alleged insider trading hassles, saying, "I will be exonerated of any ridiculousness."

WorldCom’s Wake: If AT&T and Sprint will benefit from the shocking accounting fraud at WorldCom, I think they need to take a new look at their ad strategies. Right now, telecom ad spending has been cut by several factors, not the least of which is the poor financial performance of almost every company in the category. Sprint has turned its focus to CRM, which is not an ad strategy at all.