U.S. Ad Economy Outpaces GDP During Q2 And First Half
- by Joe Mandese @mp_joemandese, July 31, 2020
Nearly two quarters into the U.S. economic recession, advertising appears to be outpacing the U.S. economy, according to an analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Standard Media Index (SMI).
The BEA Thursday released estimates that real GDP (gross domestic product) contracted 32.9% during the …
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Comprisons betwee the perofrmance of the ad indiustrty (e.g, the Standard Media Indiex,SPI) and the US Economy (GDP) are inevitably made in current $-- a pracice that can be misleading if the price changes in the ad industry are different from that in those economy as a whole. The latter are captured by the GDP Impliit Price Deflafotr. Howeveer, the ad industry currently lacks an adverftising price indix that matches the mix of media encompassed by the any of the standard indicators of aggregate ad spnding, including in SPI. Given that the ad indiustry's pricing system is in a state of flux, isn't this an oppotune time to fill the void? Ayy volunteers to lead the effort?
I assume that many of the "ad dollars" are digital ad dollars which, in many cases, reflect short term sales promotion spending---search, direct response, etc.---not long range branding spending of the type seen on TV. Previous ad spending analysis during recessions probably focused mainly on branding spend in traditional media---not digital. Hence the old studies revealed a lag that now seems to be missing. But is it? I doubt that branding spend will catch up as quickly when the economy begins to rebound---just as was true in the past.