There's an ironic paradox in new research released today that speaks volumes about the future of technological adoption, and especially how we research it.
The Pew Research Center finds that smartphone penetration has exceeded household broadband penetration. That's not the paradox, but it's one part of it.
The paradox is …
Joe, telephone coincidentals were considered the "gold standard" for measuring TV audiences for many years---except it was too expensive to use this method to obtain results for every show---including those aired after 9PM when phone calls of this kind were resented by consumers. That changed I would say about thirty years ago when the glut of telemarketing calls made many consumers wary of answering unwanted solitications and steps were taken to avoid this. This is one of the reasons why telephone placed TV and radio diaries became questionable--- their cooperation rates plumetted as a result and those who participated were no longer representative of the populations that were being measured.
The same problem---representative samples---will probably be an issue with cellphone research as it is already evident that online polls are obtaining samples which are heavily composed of frequent online users---not the total population. The "cure" is "sample balancing"---except it's not really a cure. All it does is a reweighting of whatever you got to make it appear like the population, statistically. But the answers for each respondent whose projection weight was so altered may still be in question..
I remember when telephone coincidentals were used as the gold standard for validation of other methodologies. But then I'm old enough now to be "esteemed."