• by Laurie Sullivan  @lauriesullivan, November 4, 2011

IBM plans to release Coremetrics Benchmark data projections Friday estimating that the number of consumers using mobile devices to purchase products will more than double in November and continue through the 2011 holiday season, compared with the prior year. Sales from mobile devices accounted for about 1% in 2009, followed by nearly 5% in 2010. Mobile will contribute more than 15% to all online retail sales in 2011. The company confirmed that September rates rose to 9%.

IBM expects online sales in November to rise between 12% and 15% compared with the year-ago month. The National Retail Federation estimates that nearly half of all American shoppers plan to make a purchase online and about half of 18- to-24-year olds will likely make a purchase from a mobile device, either smartphone or tablet. This will contribute to about $12 billion in U.S. consumer spending this holiday season.

Apple's iPhone accounted for 4% of mobile traffic, and Android 3.5%, in October 2011. From these numbers, IBM estimates a higher percentage of consumers will shift shopping from the PC to their mobile device this holiday season. Mobile sales, including tablets, continue to increase -- reaching 9.6% in October 2011, up from 3.4% in the year-ago month.

John Squire, chief strategy officer, IBM Coremetrics, said tablets contribute about 3% to online sales. "We expect it to rise to about 6% of all online sales," he said.

As consumers shift from desktops to mobile, brand marketers must focus more on personalizing landing pages. Consumers also respond at a high rate to communications on mobile devices through email, so it is important to ensure that the first message explains it all, Squire said. Monitor how consumers use tablets and display products accordingly, he said.

The influence of search engine marketing based on a percentage of organic and paid-search campaigns won't rise this year compared with last, Squire said. Display advertising will contribute a bigger piece. Squire points to rich media and video features, as well as the ability to target ads.

Social will not have as much influence either. October conversion rate data indicates that about 9.2% of consumers who visited a retail site from a social media site made a purchase, compared with 5.5% of all direct online shopping last year. Also in 2010, the majority of social shopping will continue to come from Facebook, which in October accounted for 77% of all traffic from social networks. 

IBM collects every click related to transactions for online brands to forecast revenue coming from online sites. The benchmark report can predict things like where consumers will best respond to promotions and ads or on what device will consumers reach for most when engaging with brands.

Companies use the information to identify how Web sites perform. As part of that, brands can choose to put the aggregated data in a live, up-to-the-minute online benchmark. The data is broken down into 17 categories such as Jewelry, Department Stores, and Home Goods.

The IBM Coremetrics Benchmark analysis gathers data directly from the Web sites of more than 500 U.S. retailers. Using analytics technology, the benchmark measures real-time sales data and online marketing results to identify shopping trends across social media, mobile devices and other online sources where consumers interact with brands.