Dentsu Aegis Network is downgrading its ad expenditure forecast for 2019. The latest forecast, issued today and based on data from 59 markets, predicts global growth of 3.6% this year to $609.9 billion.
In January the firm predicted growth of 3.8%, but today it cited slowing growth in China as well as trade tensions as factors contributing to the revised forecast.
The U.S. ad market remains the leading contributor to global ad spend at $223.8 billion, with 3.1% growth predicted for 2019 -- a slight uptick from the 3% growth the tea leaves revealed for the market in January.
That’s on top of 3.4% growth last year, with an additional 3.6% growth forecast for 2020 with its multiple cyclical events including the Olympics and U.S. elections.
Globally, mobile is the fastest-growing platform within digital, and is forecast to grow 21.4% in 2019. That’s being driven by increasing consumption of video on mobile with online video in general set to grow 20.5% in 2019.
TV ad spend is forecast to shrink slightly in 2019 (-0.1%) with a return to modest growth in 2020 (0.6%). Next year, growth will be driven by more dynamic TV opportunities and innovation as the penetration of smart TVs continues.
The decline of traditional print has accelerated from DAN’s January forecasts (newspapers -7.7% and magazines -7.4%) as digital continues to dominate.
Out-of-home media sees continued growth and an upward growth revision from January to 4.3%.
In the U.S., digital will grow 12.5% in 2019, with almost 40% of the total U.S. ad spend going to digital. Social video is driving growth, with live video growing in the social space.
The U.S. linear TV market continues to see ratings erosion across all dayparts and demographics. TV budgets remain roughly flat at 0.3% in 2019 with no major sporting events or major elections. The decline in linear ratings coincides with an increase in OTT viewership -- and with new players entering the market the growth potential is high, per the DAN assessment.
By category, the U.S. auto industry remains the largest advertising sector in 2019, with 1.2% year-over-year growth to $15 billion.
Retail is ranked second, with a 2.5% growth forecast for this year.