• by Wayne Friedman , September 3, 2019

As the TV advertising market sees improvements in the second quarter -- posting flat results versus declines in previous months -- total TV advertising is projected to be down around 4% this year, according to one analyst.

Second-quarter ad revenues were estimated to have dropped 0.5% to $12.2 billion, according to MoffettNathanson research.

Total TV advertising is projected to reach $76.1 billion in 2019, down from $79.3 billion a year ago. In 2020 -- due to political and Olympic advertising spending -- TV advertising is projected to rise 4%.

TV advertising improvements came in the midst of a strong scatter market in the second quarter -- which then kicked off a strong upfront advertising selling period for the 2019-2020 TV season.

TV networks posted healthy 12% to 15% gains in the cost per thousand viewers versus a year ago, with overall upfront advertising volume up 3% to 4%.

Michael Nathanson, media analyst at MoffettNathanson research, wrote that this is good news for the future -- and the economy overall.

“If the economy is on the brink of a recession, the strong demand in the TV scatter market -- as seen in massive CPM inflation -- would be an unusual and atypical data point.” He adds: “Even though viewership continues to fall on TV, these core national advertisers are keeping TV ad spend afloat.”

Second-quarter TV advertising dollars were was essentially flat in the second quarter versus a 7% decline in the first quarter, due to comparisons to the Olympics a year before.

Local TV stations are now forecast to decline 9% this year in advertising to $20.9 billion, with the top four broadcast networks sinking 4.3% to $15.3 billion, while national cable is forecast to be flat at $30.6 billion, with local cable 10.6% lower to $4.9 billion and syndication (including some smaller broadcast networks) down 1% to $4.4 billion.